FC Ingolstadt vs Union Berlin Predictions

Ingolstadt have seen much change since their relegation from the Bundesliga back in 2017, including the transfer of star man Pascal Gross to Brighton that very summer, and their start to the 18/19 campaign shows how fast things have gone downhill. Former Bremen manager Alexander Nouri was brought in earlier this week to help start making amends to Ingolstadt’s awful year so far, but whether or not he can do so is another question. While he has five years of managerial experience under his belt, only one year of that was above fourth tier level, and his 34.88% win record at Bremen in the Bundesliga (W15 D11 L17) means he has a lot to prove. His side lost 2-1 defeat away to league leaders Cologne during the week, though this isn’t too much of a biggy against the league leaders.

Union Berlin have had no such worries. While the Berliners are yet to feature in the German top flight since the reunification in 1990, they are now a very established Bundesliga 2 club, entering their 9th consecutive season in the German second tier. Union balanced a number of outgoing transfers over the summer with some clever purchases from some Bundesliga sides too and this has done wonders for their stability. Not only are Union Berlin the only side unbeaten in the league ahead of this match (W3 D4), but the Berliners also hold the single best defensive record in the league – just 5 goals conceded.

No match is ever easy, but there are a couple of key factors that make us feel that the visitors should get the win here. Firstly, it’s reasonable to expect them to be a lot more used to the system they play then an Ingolstadt side that are out-of-form and under new management. Union have lost just one of their last six matches on the road too (W2 D3 L1), which includes trips to top of the league Cologne and the in-form Arminia Bielefeld. Notably, under 2.5 goals were scored in five of these (83%), with Berlin keeping clean sheets in three of them (50%).

So what about a correct score bet? Well, Union Berlin’s strength lies in there defense, something that should prove tough to break down for an Ingolstadt side that have the third worst offense in the league (7 goals scored). Union are, nonetheless, managing over a goal per match scored on average and against an Ingolstadt defense that has conceded a massive 15 goals so far this season – an average of over two goals conceded per game – then you have to fancy them to get at least one here. However, having not scored more than one away from home since March, we can’t see this getting too out of hand. Swedish forward Sebastian Andersson has hit a bit of a cold patch after bagging three goals over Union Berlin’s opening three matches, but against such a weak defense, it would be reasonable to expect him back on the scoresheet on Monday. All things considered, it’s hard to see anything other than a tidy away win here. Our prediction: 1-0 Union Berlin.