Finland vs Armenia Predictions

Finland play host to Armenia on Tuesday evening, as they look to cement their position in the top two. Markku Kanerva’s men have little chance of catching the Italians, who’ve set a hot pace in Group J, but as they’re two points ahead of Tuesday’s visitors, they’ve got an excellent chance of becoming red-hot favourites to qualify in second.

The Finns may have suffered a heavy defeat on Saturday evening, as they conceded four and scored just once in reply away in Bosnia, but they remain in a healthy position. What’s more, they’re up against an Armenian side that has struggled to get going away from home, as their recent 1-1 draw with Liechtenstein suggests.

At home in qualifying, Finland have looked useful. They delivered a disciplined performance to beat Bosnia by two goals to nil, while they appeared to be very sturdy when recording a 1-0 win over the Greeks after that. They did come unstuck against Italy in their most recent match in front of a home crowd, but they certainly didn’t go down without a fight, losing by just a single goal.

While Finland have been nice and steady on their own patch, Armenia have found it tough to put their best foot forward on the road. They did beat Greece, due largely to a slice of good fortune, as they were bettered in several areas, including expected goals, shots and shots on target. Prior to their slightly fortuitous victory in Athens, the Armenians were soundly beaten by Bosnia, to whom they gifted a rather hefty 2.83 expected goals.

Getting the ball in the net hasn’t been an issue for Armenia on the road, as they’ve notched in each of their three travelling games, scoring a very decent total of five goals. They’re also averaging 1.35 expected goals for which is respectable. However, they’ve got serious problems at the other end. Tuesday’s visitors are without an away clean sheet in qualifying. They’ve conceded five in three and are conceding a very poor average of 2.39 expected goals. At home, Finland have surrendered an average of just 1.22.

In truth, thanks to a dodgy Armenian rear-guard, this is a big opportunity for the Finns to take a giant leap towards qualifying. A disciplined approach allowed them to walk away with victory in the reverse fixture, so there’s no reason as to why the hosts cannot do the double over Tuesday’s visitors.

Those looking to get involved in the betting are pointed in the direction of ‘Finland to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’. The hosts aren’t the most creative side, nor do they often batter teams, but thanks to having a goal-getter like Teemu Pukki in their ranks, they don’t often go without finding the net. If we exclude their narrow defeat against Italy, who’re far better than Armenia, Finland have also given little away at home and haven’t really looked like conceding, so backing the hosts to record a routine win stands out.