Forest Green Rovers vs Exeter City Predictions

After slogging it out for 45 matches, Forest Green are inches away from finishing in the coveted top seven. Just a point is enough for Saturday’s hosts to make the play-offs, though they’re up against an Exeter side that is also fighting for a top-seven finish, so their task is not an easy one. The visitors are in a slightly less commanding position, though they’re just a point off the top seven. Exeter’s fate depends largely on what Newport do, though the Grecians will be keen to give themselves the best possible chance by winning at The New Lawn.

As good a position as they’re in, it is a bit worrying that Forest Green both lost and conceded four goals against Crewe last time out. The score-line on that occasion was a tad misleading; the hosts created 1.51 expected goals for, while Forest Green created 1.1, though one thing is for sure and that’s that Saturday’s hosts failed to outplay a mid-table side, which doesn’t exactly bode well ahead of this big game against a play-off challenger.

Not only did Forest Green disappoint last time out, but they’ve also struggled at home against sides either in the top seven of sides challenging for the top seven. Mark Cooper’s men did beat Cambridge at home recently, while they also got the better of Macclesfield prior to that, though given Exeter’s standing, form against lowly sides isn’t as relevant as recent form against top-half opposition. MK Dons recently outclassed Rovers at this venue, while Carlisle created more when drawing 1-1 at The New Lawn before that. In fact, Forest Green’s overall home record against teams currently residing in the top ten is reasonably poor, as they’ve won one, drawn three and lost four.

While Forest Green haven’t been great at home against the sides around Exeter in the table, Saturday’s visitors haven’t been great away from home in general of late. They’ve won only one of their last six travelling matches, though they’ve only lost two of the other five during that time. In fact, while they’ve not been massively impressive, they’ve been reasonably tough to beat, as they’ve lost just three of their last ten on the road. None of those three defeats were by more than a single goal.

The fact that Exeter have scored an average of 1.18 goals away from home and have conceded an average of 1.09 tells us that they’ve not been amazing, but that they’re also not easy to get the better of. Then again, like Forest Green at home, Exeter don’t have an encouraging record away against the current top ten, as they’ve won one, drawn three and lost four.

In truth, as the league table suggests, there’s not much between this pair. Neither have thrived in their respective home and away matches against top-ten teams, though neither are often well beaten.

One bet that does stand out at the prices is ‘Both Teams to Score’. Neither side is necessarily renowned for scoring bundles of goals, though when we consider the fact that Forest Green average 1.34 expected goals for at home, alongside the fact that Exeter average 1.3 on the road, it’s easy to feel that the chance of both scoring on Saturday is slightly greater than the current prices suggest. Moreover, both teams have scored in four of Forest Green’s last five at home, as well as in four of Exeter’s last five on the road.