Freiburg vs Augsburg Predictions, Betting Tips, & Match Preview

Freiburg kept their perfect home record going with a 1-0 win over in-form Eintracht Frankfurt at the start of October, extending their streak to nine consecutive home wins. Coach Christian Streich – the man who guided Freiburg to UEFA Europa League football in extraordinary fashion in 2013 –  will, however, no doubt be disappointed with his side’s away form, as they head into this off the back of yet another away defeat. Turkish centre back Caglar Söyüncü is almost single-handedly the player at fault in their 2-1 defeat at Hoffenheim last weekend; his weak back-pass gifted Hoffenheim’s Sandro Wagner a 1v1 to concede their first and with a reckless headed clearance he gave away a penalty late on.

Augsburg turned a new page this summer with the arrival of new coach Dirk Schuster replacing the Schalke 04-bound Markus Weinzierl. Coach Schuster is slightly behind his target of establishing Augsburg as top-ten material as Ausburg come into this match with just one win from their last five. However, Augsburg have had a tricky run and have taken away some decent results from a set of difficult fixtures – a 0-0 draw away to Bayer Leverkusen and a 1-1 draw at home to Schalke 04 last weekend being most notable. Icelandic striker Alfred Finnbogason, who scored seven goals in fourteen appearances on loan at Augsburg last season, has been disappointing since joining permanently, scoring just one in seven matches so far.

Though nothing can be taken away from Freiburg’s winning streak at home, it must be noted that six of these wins come from their time in the 2. Bundesliga and their three wins at home this season have been against teams that were either out-of-form, such as Hamburg, or tend to fare badly on the road, such as Borussia M’gladbach. Freiburg do head into this match as the bookies favourites at 6/5, but we actually fancy the visitors here for a few reasons: the Bavarians hold a really strong record against Freiburg – Augsburg have won 4 of the 5 most recent meetings between them (two wins in Freiburg and two at home). Augsburg have also lost just one of their last six on the road (W3 D2 L1) – a win or draw ratio of 83% – even against teams such as Bayer Leverkusen, Wolfsburg and Schalke. Augsburg also have no problem scoring on the road – Augsburg have scored at least one in 10 of their 11 most recent away matches. Notably, Augsburg are the only side Freiburg have failed to score against in every competitive home match since March 2015.

As such, we feel that Augsburg or draw is the better value bet here at 7/10 with bet365. Augsburg have scored exactly two goals in all three of their most recent away wins (one 2-0 and one 2-1) so we feel a correct score bet of Augsburg to win 2-1 at 11/1 is also tremendously decent value.