Hannover 96 vs TSG Hoffenheim Predictions

Hannover’s 2-0 defeat away to Nurnberg last weekend can be accredited to one thing and one thing only: Miiko Albornoz’s 29th minute red card. After starting promisingly, Andre Breitenreiter’s men were unable to get the better of the newly-promoted side, and you’d have to call it a blip on an otherwise respectable enough start to the 2018/19 Bundesliga campaign. Hannover recorded two points from three before that, away to RB Leipzig (3-2 defeat), at home to Borussia Dortmund (0-0 draw) and against North German neighbours Werder Bremen in the season opener (1-1 draw). Last season’s top scorer Niclas Fullkrug (14 goals) – the third highest scoring Bundesliga player in the 17/18 season – has just one under his belt this season so far, but he is learning to play under a new partnership with Hamburg loanee striker Bobby Wood, so give them time.

Coach Julian Nagelsmann has achieved a lot over his two and a half seasons at Hoffenheim, turning them from relegation fodder to top four contenders, and though he has already agreed to leave the club and join RB Leipzig next summer, he says he wants to go out on a high. However, a busy period of Bundesliga and Champions League fixtures sees them head into this win-less in their last three against promotees Dusseldorf (2-1 away defeat), Ukranian outfit Shaktar Donetsk (2-2 away draw) and Dortmund (1-1 home draw), so this match will mark a fourth game over ten days. Croatian forward Andrej Kramaric is back in the team after a short spell sidelined after a long summer at the World Cup, so expect him to continue proving a threat behind the Bundesliga’s second joint top scorer, Adam Szalai (3 goals).

So where does that leave us ahead of this game? Well, after looking over everything, the unpredictability of both sides make this one look somewhat tough to call. However, we feel that backing Hannover to get at least a point at home to Hoffenheim looks the best bet. Hannover did sell a few of their star players over the summer, but they are still proving a tough nut to crack, holding a “travel sick” side Dortmund to a 0-0 draw there last time out. Hoffenheim, like Dortmund, are still one of the top sides struggling to perform away from home – Hoffenheim have won just two Bundesliga away matches in 2018 (W2 D4 L5) – and that’s something that will prove particularly tough to turn around, with a few injuries and some tired legs about after a busy schedule.

Following on from that, Hoffenheim’s main struggles in the league last season came from their defense – in fact, both teams have scored in 10 of Hoffenheim’s last 12 league away matches (82%) – and not much looks to have changed going into the 18/19 campaign. Just three teams have a worse defensive record than Hoffenheim after four matches, so even expecting a team like Hannover to be able to get a goal isn’t too far-fetched. Surprisingly, despite finishing just lower mid-table last season, the hosts’ record at home was what kept them up – Hannover lost just 6 of their 17 league outings at the HDI Arena last term (W8 D3 L6) – and they’ve actually won both of the last two outings against Hoffenheim there too (one 1-0 win and one 2-0 win). However, with Hoffenheim failing to score in just 1 of their last 11 away matches, there has to be some value in thinking both teams to score in the correct score market. Our prediction: a 1-1 draw.