Hungary vs Finland Predictions

After losing last time out, Finland’s chance of victory in Group 2, League C is now slightly in doubt. Sunday’s visitors are still three points in front, though they’ll need a point from this fixture to confirm their promotion. In contrast Hungary, cannot win promotion, though they will be hoping to continue building momentum after their secured a pleasing win against Finland last time out.

In terms of results, Hungary haven’t exactly thrived since the start of this competition, though their overall performances have been pleasing. Their efforts on the road against Estonia weren’t great, while they were also a bit poor when facing Greece at home, though aside from that, it’s tough to criticise the hosts, who recorded a convincing win over the Estonians last time out, emerging with a pleasing expected goal supremacy of +1.49. When facing the same opponents at home, Finland managed only +0.83.

Not only did the Hungarians deliver a promising performance on Thursday night, but they also dominated the reverse of this fixture, so much so that their 1-0 defeat was very unjust. When the teams met back on match-day one, Finland did come out on top by a goal to nil, but it would be wrong to say that they weren’t very fortunate. On that occasion, Hungary were the better side, as the fact that they held a +1.82 expected goal supremacy suggests. A repeat of that performance would surely be enough for Marco Rossi’s men to turn the tables.

Overall, Finland have played well in this competition, though they look less capable of taking a game by the scruff of the neck than Hungary, who created a very positive impression last time out. In contrast, Finland folded somewhat tamely against Greece on Thursday evening. They weren’t necessarily outplayed, but they failed to get serious in the final third, even when chasing the game. If we consider that effort in conjunction with the fact that they were second best when the teams met in the reverse fixture, then it’s easy to fear for visitors ahead of this clash.

Furthermore, if we look at Hungary’s underlying data at home, coupled with Finland’s away, the hosts really do make most appeal. At home in the UEFA Nations League, Hungary are averaging 1.18 expected goals for, while they’re giving up just 0.57 at the other end. Away from home, Finland are averaging just 0.98 for, while they’re surrendering 0.82. With a far better expected goal difference, coupled with the fact that they were clearly the better team in the reverse fixture, Hungary are backed to exact their revenge and come out on top.