IFK Norrkoping vs St Patricks Predictions

Norrkoping have put themselves in a strong position ahead of this second leg; not only did they win on the road last week, but they notched two away goals and kept a clean sheet. St. Patrick’s quest for Europa League football appears to be over.

St. Patrick’s enjoyed a few moments of promise last weekend, but overall, it was a game dominated by Norrkoping, who were the better side in all areas. Offensively, as they clocked 1.97 expected goals for, registered 23 shots, eight of which hit the target, and scored two goals, the Swedish side were superior.

Not only did Norrkoping dominate the game in an attacking sense, but they also did the much better job of preventing their opponents from getting serious in the final third. The Swedes limited St. Patrick’s to just two shots on target and only 0.37 expected goals for, which is pleasing since they were playing away from home. Having done such a good job on the road, Norrkoping will fancy themselves to finish the job off in front of a home crowd.

In truth, given their efforts last week, it’s very tough to see St. Patrick’s turning this one around. If they were unable to get seriously competitive at home, then they’re unlikely to have enough about them to overturn a two-goal deficit on foreign soil. In addition, their away record in UEL qualifying is somewhat discouraging. Since 2009, St. Patrick’s have played 12 qualifiers on the road. They’ve won none of those 12, nine of which they’ve lost. That said, they have kept things reasonably respectable in recent years, conceding no more than two goals since 2009.

From a betting point of view, the hosts are the team to side with ahead of this match. Specifically, ‘Norrkoping to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ catches the eye. Much as they did last week, the Swedes can prevent their opponents from getting serious in the final third before making their extra at the other end pay. That said, we shouldn’t expect Norrkoping to run riot, as there’s little need to for them to overly exert themselves, while St. Patrick’s record on the road in UEL qualifying suggests that they can at least avoid a heavy defeat.