Junior vs Atletico Paranaese Predictions

Thursday’s Copa Sudamericana first leg final action sees Colombians Junior doing battle with Brazilians Atletico PR. The hosts will be look to open up an advantage to take with them to a very difficult return leg.

2018 is certainly shaping up to end in memorable fashion for Junior who not only have the chance the claim continental glory in this tie, but are also in the final of the closing phase league play-offs, which will be contested in between these games with Atletico. As such, it’s set to be a highly intense couple of weeks for Los Tiburones but weeks that could go down as some of the most successful in the club’s history.

Having seen off Lanus, Colon, Defensa y Justicia and Santa Fe to reach the final, Junior have looked strong in continental action and having won each of their home legs against said opponents, confidence is clearly high coming into Thursday’s game. Indeed, Junior have lost just 1 of their last 17 home matches, winning 13 times in the process and the side have long since been regarded as a powerful force on their own patch.

That leaves Atletico PR facing a difficult task on Thursday but the visitors will be desperate to secure a positive result that would leave them as huge favourites going into the second leg. The Brazilians have won 15 of their last 17 home matches and that suggests that if they can avoid defeat on Thursday, they’ll likely be crowned winners in a week’s time.

Nonetheless, whilst Atletico have won all 4 of their 5 away legs on the road to the final, winning at Penarol, Caracas, Bahia and Fluminense, they can hardly be regarded as a strong visiting outfit due to their struggles away from home all year in regular, Serie A action. Furacão won just 2 of their 19 matches on enemy territory during the league season and having also lost 10 of said fixtures, there’s clearly a degree of vulnerability about the side when on their travels.

Ultimately, this is a final that will almost certainly be settled by whoever uses their home advantage best and whilst you’d have to favour Atletico PR slightly as overall favourites given their slightly stronger squad, Junior will certainly fancy their chances when taking this first leg as a standalone fixture.

At current prices, we see good value in backing Junior to win this match and a home win is exactly where our money is going. Los Tiburones haven’t even conceded a goal at the Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in the Sudamericana so far this year and with 3 of their 4 wins having been by 1-0 margins, that’s a scoreline we envisage being repeated against an Atletico outfit that isn’t the strongest away from home.