LDU Quito vs River Plate Predictions

• LDU Quito have won 4 of their last 5 Libertadores home games.
• During said streak, they’ve scored an average of 2.2 goals a game.
• River Plate have won just 1 of their last 8 Libertadores away games, losing the latter 2 in the process.

LDU Quito looking to make altitude advantage count

With their group containing giants River Plate and Sao Paulo, as well as Peruvians Binacional, LDU Quito cannot be considered favourites to reach the knockout phase. Nonetheless, the Ecuadorians do have one factor in their favour and that’s that their home is situated some 2,850 metres above sea level.

As such, visitors to the Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria are faced with gruelling, draining conditions that give the hosts every chance of securing results. With little hope of winning in Brazil or Argentina, Thursday’s game is one LDU need to be targeting 3 points in and having won 4 of their last 5 Libertadores home fixtures they can be confident in getting exactly that.

Distracted River to ring the changes

Meanwhile, this Libertadores opener isn’t the priority for River Plate, with the weekend trip to Atletico Tucuman taking all focus. If Marcelo Gallardo’s men win said fixture they will be crowned domestic champions for the first time since 2014; drop points and they will almost certainly be pipped to the post by arch rivals Boca.

As such, River’s key men will not be involved in Thursday’s game and Los Millonarios will instead field a heavily rotated team. Said decision certainly makes sense given the physical toll the conditions will have on the visitors but already with just 1 win in 8 Libertadores away games, it does leave their prospects looking bleak coming into the trip.

LDU have to be fancied

Ultimately, although River are the bigger and stronger outfit of the two, all factors are pointing towards a home win in this fixture. LDU have altitude on their side, have a strong continental home record and face a River outfit that is distracted by domestic affairs.

As such, backing an LDU Quito win looks by far the best way to play as far as the betting is concerned and is something we’re more than happy to do. They should prove far too strong for River’s second string and having plunged home an average of 2.2 goals a game over their last 5 Libertadores home outings, we fancy them to run out 2-0 winners on the night.