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Luton vs Chelsea Predictions

  • 19:15
  • Expired
  • Kenilworth Road
Luton
Chelsea
  • BBC One

Both Teams To Score

19/20odds when tipped
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Chelsea 2-1

8/1odds when tipped
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Tip Reasoning

  • Luton have scored 14 goals across their last seven home games
  • Chelsea have conceded to Chesterfield and Plymouth in this competition
  • The Blues have scored in 14 of their last 16

Cup Blues for Chelsea

Chelsea lost Sunday’s Carabao Cup final by the narrowest of margins, with just one of the 22 players on the pitch missing in the penalty shootout after a thrilling 120 minutes. The Blues had three disallowed goals in that time, but all eyes are on Thomas Tuchel’s move to bring on Kepa Arrizabalaga for Edouard Mendy.

The goalkeeper change worked in the UEFA Super Cup in Belfast back in August, but it seemed a bizarre move after Mendy’s 120 minutes of brilliance, while he helped Senegal to a shootout win over Mo Salah’s Egypt last month. With Kepa likely to take up cup duties again in midweek, that’s where the focus will be for many.

Luton form should test Chelsea

This clash is a rematch from last season’s FA Cup Third Round – the final game of Frank Lampard’s tenure. However, there are echoes of one of the earliest games in Tuchel’s reign, when his Chelsea side travelled to Barnsley in last season’s Fifth Round.

The Blues met a Championship side in storming form, putting together a surprise run to the playoffs. That’s how Luton head into this game, with the hosts sixth after winning six of their last seven games.

The hosts have averaged two goals per game across their last seven at home, so I can see them causing problems for Chelsea in this clash, just as Barnsley did 12 months ago.

Chelsea backline remains vulnerable

While Mendy was immovable on Sunday, Luton face the easier task of getting by Kepa. The Blues have conceded in both rounds of the FA Cup so far, conceding at home to National League Chesterfield and League One Plymouth.

Luton come into this one in flying form, so expect them to pose a real threat to Chelsea’s defence. Meanwhile, only Man City and Liverpool have stopped Chelsea scoring across their last 16 games, so back the Blues to notch here too.

Both teams to score looks like the best way to go, while I’m backing Chelsea to win 2-1 in my correct score prediction. The Blues haven’t scored more than twice in a game across their last 10 since meeting Chesterfield, with those 10 bringing five wins by a single goal.

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