Mainz 05 vs Saint-Etienne Predictions, Betting Tips, & Match Preview

Mainz, who qualified directly into the UEFA Europa League group stage with a 6th placed finish in the Bundesliga last season, felt no need to make much change over the summer period. Coach Martin Schmidt clearly trusts his already established squad which pushed them to their best league finish in years. However, Mainz have had a shaky start to their 2016/2017 campaign, scraping through their DFB Pokal first round match against fourth tier side SpVgg Unterhaching on penalties and losing 2-1 away to Borussia Dortmund in their opening Bundesliga match a few weeks back. Mainz picked up a point last weekend in their thrilling 4-4 draw against Hoffenheim, where their 4-1 lead at half-time was disappointingly squandered after left-back Gaten Bussmann saw himself sent off with a straight red.

Saint-Etienne, who also finished 6th in their domestic league (French Ligue 1) last season, started their Europa League campaign a bit earlier in the third qualifying round. Their progression through to the group stages was set, thanks to an aggregate 1-0 win against Greek side AEK Athens followed by a 2-1 aggregate win over Israeli side Beitar Jerusalem in the playoff round. Saint-Etienne head into this match in decent form, undefeated in five consecutive matches (W2 D3), and off the back of a 1-1 draw away to reigning champions PSG, which no doubt felt like a win with a 92nd minute equalizer.

Mainz are the bookies’ favourites here at 10/11, which is surprising given their somewhat poor form. Saint-Etienne’s unbeaten run does make a bet on draw or Saint-Etienne at 10/11 seem extremely reasonable, but we feel there’s a more obvious and better value bet here. Mainz never fail to be an entertaining team for a neutral fan. Their attacking prowess, which sees them often exposed defensively, has seen over 2.5 goals scored in nine of their last eleven matches. Recent notable results include last weekend’s 4-4 draw against Hoffenheim, a 3-3 draw against Unterhaching in the DFB Pokal, and a 4-0 win over Liverpool in a preseason friendly. Mainz love to come out firing, scoring four in the first half last time out, and we expect their opening Europa League fixture to be no exception. Meanwhile, though Saint Etienne have played out two 0-0 draws in their most recent home matches, their away form only indicates goals. Saint-Etienne have scored two goals in two of their last three away matches (in a 3-2 defeat against Bordeaux and a 2-1 win over Beitar Jerusalem). Not to mention that scoring one away against PSG in their last Ligue 1 match couldn’t have been an easy feat either.

As such, we expect this to be a close end to end affair. Over 2.5 goals at 23/20 and a draw 2-2 at 16/1 with bet365 are therefore our choice bets for this Europa League match.