Malmo FF vs Sarpsborg Predictions

When Andreas Vindheim struck with less than 12 minutes of normal time to go in Norway a fortnight ago, Malmo boss Uwe Rösler must’ve thought that his side had sealed a big win, though the German was forced to watch on as the hosts found an equaliser with little more than two minutes left on the clock. Now back on their own patch, Malmo will be looking to make amends.

Having gone in front late on, Malmo will have been disappointed, but based on their efforts in that match, they could hardly have thought that they deserved to win. From a creativity point of view, the Swedes did less than their Norwegian hosts, while they gave more away too, as the final expected goals counts (Sarpsborg = 1.18, Malmo = 0.55) show.

The reverse of this fixture isn’t the only time that Malmo have failed to really get going in the Europa League this season. On match-day one, Rösler’s men found it tough to create, while they were easily opened up by Genk, and while they did do a better job of competing when they beat Besiktas on match-day two, the Swedes hardly looked imperious.

In contrast, Sarpsborg, though not the flashiest side, have performed well in Group I. Their performance certainly didn’t warrant losing against Besiktas on match-day one, while their overall quality came to the fore when they convincingly got the better of a useful Genk side on match-day two. Moreover, if they can take their match-day three performance and replicate it in Sweden on Thursday night, then the Norwegians should do much better than the market currently expects them to.

In all honestly, despite early market expectation heavily favouring the hosts, it’s not at all hard to make a case for the visitors. Sarpsborg were the better team when the pair met in Norway a fortnight ago, while their overall efforts in Group I have surpassed anything that Malmo have achieved. With an average expected goal difference of +0.46, which is better than Malmo’s average expected goal difference of -0.16, backing the visitors to get a positive result represents a slice of value that is not to be missed.