Moreirense vs FC Porto Predictions

• Porto have not scored more than twice in eight of their last nine away games against Moreirense.
• Moreirense have conceded more than two goals in only one of ten home league games this term.
• The hosts defence will be boosted by the return of Steven Vitoria.

Moreirense might douse the Dragons’ fire 

Sunday’s clash between one of the most inconsistent teams in Portugal and this season’s cream of the crop could be a bit harder to call than it looks on the surface. Hosts Moreirense have lost three of their last four league contests and were thrashed 5-0 by Famalicao last weekend to leave them languishing in the Primeira’s relegation playoff position while Porto are on an eight-game winning streak away from home and sit six points clear at the top.

But back in 2019 a Moreirense side with just one win in their previous six games came within seconds of beating a Porto team seeking their eighth win on the bounce and that is one of three draws they have achieved in their last four home clashes with the champions-in-waiting. Porto will be without suspended centre-back Pepe and back-up keeper Agustin Marchesin after they were ordered off in the 2-2 thriller with Sporting last weekend, but the Dragons have enough quality and depth to cope.

There’s value in opposing Porto goals

Moreirense coach Ricardo Sa Pinto apologised for the 5-0 thrashing last weekend, but his side weren’t as bad as the shocking scoreline suggest and they have bounced back from similar setbacks before. The hosts will still be without big January recruit Kevin Mirallas but experienced centre-back Steven Vitoria is available to bolster a backline that has allowed just four goals in their last four home games.

Moreirense’s average xG against at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas is actually a fairly respectable 1.38 and only the tenth worst of the 18 top-flight clubs. That suggests to us there is some value to be had in the Porto team goal markets. Moreirense have not conceded more than twice in any of their last eight home games and, although they have not faced this current Porto side, the Dragons have only hit more than two goals on one of their past nine visits to Moreira de Conegos.

A 2-1 victory for Sergio Conceicao’s side is taken in correct score betting because recent history only counts for so much when it comes to football and Porto’s class should keep their winning away sequence intact.

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