Nurnberg vs TSG Hoffenheim Predictions

Nurnberg took a few heavy knock downs over the weeks preceding the international break. A win at home to fellow promotees Fortuna Dusseldorf was sandwiched between 7-0 and 6-0 hammerings by Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig respectively. It’s becoming more and more evident that the Bavarians look out of their depth against the better sides in the Bundesliga. Nurnberg are, at least, on the right track for surivival with eight points on the board from seven matches so far, and when you look at the overall picture, it seems that coach Michael Koellner has got his side making the most of their “favourable fixtures”.

However, even with Hoffenheim’s hot and cold away form, this will be another tough one. Julian Nagelsmann’s men might have lost each of their last three across all competitions, but strong performances, including that at home to English champions Manchester City, are results that will no doubt disappoint but offer a lot of confidence going forward. And confidence is something Hoffenheim need as a run of poor form – not helped by a flurry of injuries (see team news) – has seen them record just two wins so far this season. English teenager Reiss Nelson could be called upon for inspiration after scoring two in just three appearances for the club, while also impressing with England U21s over the internationsal break.

So where does that leave us ahead of this game? Well, after looking over everything, Nurnberg’s struggles in big fixtures does make us fancy Hoffenheim’s chances. Even though Nurnberg are yet to be beaten at the Max-Morlock-Stadion this season (W2 D1), these matches were against much less fierce opposition (Mainz, Hannover, and Dusseldorf). Hoffenheim, meanwhile, are the better side on paper and have been somewhat “unlucky” to have lost all of their last few outings. Goalkeepers are not always to blame, but given that Hoffenheim have had the 5th fewest shots against them this season, shot-stopper Oliver Baumann has some work to do standing in the bottom three for shots saved (61%).

Following on from that, only one team has taken more shots on goal than Hoffenheim and that’s Bayern Munich, so expecting this to be largely a one way affair isn’t too farfetched. However, with Hoffenheim lacking a defensive record to boast, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see Nurnberg get on the scoresheet either – in fact, both teams have scored in ten of Hoffenheim’s twelve league matches on the road in 2018 (83%). Going off this, for us the value has to be in adding both teams to score to our prediction that Hoffenheim come away with three points. Our prediction: 2-1 Hoffenheim.