Plymouth Argyle vs Coventry Predictions

Plymouth held off a late challenge from Southend last weekend to win by three goals to two away from home, which means that Derek Adams’ men have now won two on the bounce and are now just a point away from being out of the dreaded drop-zone.

The Pilgrims fought hard for their victory at Roots Hall last weekend, though they didn’t exactly look like a side that is going to keep things tight, which is perhaps what is needed right now. It was the third match in a row that Derek Adam’s men have competed well in the final third, but their defensive efforts are just not cutting it at present. They got the win on that occasion, but unless Plymouth tighten up at the back, then they’re going to struggle to climb out of the drop-zone.

Even on their own patch, Plymouth are seemingly finding it tough to offer a threat going forward whilst staying sharp at the back. The attacking efforts of Derek Adams’ men at home in recent times cannot be criticised; they’ve got forward plenty, have created good scoring opportunities and have scored lots of goals. However, such tactics have left them open at the back. The Pilgrims have conceded in all but one of their last seven at home, shipping a total of 13 goals. Their last five expected goals against figures of 1.22, 1.63, 1.76, 1.57, 1.32 tell us that they’re not denying their opponents chances, which is ultimately costing them.

Like Plymouth at home, Coventry have offered plenty going forward on their travels of late. The Sky Blues have scored in only three of their last five on the road, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. From a chance creation point of view, Mark Robins’ men have offered plenty; they clocked 1.44 expected goals for against Scunthorpe recently, while they also recorded 2.0 away against Wycombe, 1.53 away against Walsall and 2.54 away against Fleetwood. Such numbers bode well head of a match against Plymouth’s dodgy back-line.

Given the Plymouth have defended like a side that could be beat by almost anyone in League One, it would be hard to side with the visitors on this occasion, but Coventry haven’t been infallible of late, while the hosts deserve plenty of credit for the way that they attack. At the prices, the best betting option looks to be ‘Over 2.5 Goals’.

We know that Plymouth will get forward and are likely to create chances; their last five expected goals for figures (at home) of 1.47, 2.85, 5.65, 1.75 and 1.34 show that, while Coventry have found clean sheets hard to come by on the road in recent weeks. That said, the hosts simply give too much away and a side like Coventry, who’ve posted some solid attacking numbers on the road of late, ought to be capable of taking advantage. All in all, a relatively high-scoring game looks likely, more likely than the current prices suggest.