Rochdale vs Blackpool Predictions

If Rochdale fans, who saw their team struggle last season, had been told that their first defeat of the new campaign would be a narrow one against last term’s play-off finalists on match-day four, they probably would’ve taken it. However, Dale will be keen to ensure that the good work done over the first few weeks isn’t swiftly undone, so it’s important that they bounce back on Saturday. Blackpool, who are currently top and one of only six unbeaten teams, will be looking to make it four wins from five.

Rochdale were beaten in the week, but their efforts were far from poor. Brian Barry-Murphy’s men bettered the Black Cats in terms of both shots and shots on target, while they were on top in terms of possession pretty much throughout. Add in the fact that they ended the game with an expected goal difference of only -0.29 and it’s easy to feel that Dale were slightly unfortunate.

Last term, Dale struggled because they gave too much away, though their early-season efforts suggest that they’ve tightened up slightly. An average of 1.08 expected goals against after four matches is respectable. Considering that they’ve faced two of last season’s top six in their first two home matches, the fact that they’ve surrendered a total of just 1.88 expected goals is pleasing.

After four games, Blackpool are nicely perched at the top of the League One tree, though their overall efforts haven’t quite been as pleasing as result perhaps suggest. In terms of effectiveness, the Seasiders, who’ve been clinical in front of goal, have looked good going forward, as they’ve notched an impressive nine goals.

However, if we scratch beneath the surface, deficiencies are there for all to see. An average of 1.37 expected goals for tells us that Blackpool will almost certainly need to improve in terms of creativity if they’re to continue their current scoring rate, while an average of 1.59 expected goals against suggests that they’ll also need to tighten up defensively if they’re to continue conceding just a goal per game on average.

The betting ahead of this match suggests that the pair are reasonably evenly matched, though on their own patch, Rochdale probably deserve a touch more respect. Going purely on results, the visitors have done a better job than Saturday’s hosts over the first few weeks, though Rochdale’s average expected goal difference of -0.02 is slightly more appealing than that of Blackpool, who currently boast an average expected goal difference of -0.22.

Moreover, Rochdale have surrendered an average of just 0.94 expected goals at home, while Blackpool have given up an average of 1.54 on the road. In terms of both shots and shot on target, the hosts have performed slightly better at home than the visitors have on the road. Backing Rochdale to win at what appears to be a slightly generous price makes plenty of appeal.

‘Correct Score’ punters can opt for a 2-0 home victory. The hosts have done a good job of restricting teams at home, while facing a Blackpool side that has surrendered an average of 1.5 goals and 1.54 expected goals for on the road presents Dale with the opportunity to record a pleasing home win.