Scunthorpe vs Oxford United Predictions

Scunthorpe’s improved form is well and truly a thing of the past, as the Iron have now lost each of their last five league games. Having lost by four goals to one on their own patch last time out, Stuart McCall’s men are unlikely to be feeling too confident ahead of this fixture, so perhaps this is a good opportunity for an improving Oxford side to continue moving in the right direction.

The Scunthorpe board have already made one managerial change this season, a change that appeared to spark improvement, though the Iron have slipped off again, so much so that if things don’t pick up soon it may not be long before they’re searching for their third manager of the campaign.

On paper, Scunthorpe were thrashed last weekend, but they really ought to have got more out of that game, as they created more than enough opportunities. Their defeat on that occasion was partly down to a lack of end-product in the final third, though their defensive antics were once again not up to scratch. No matter how much Scunthorpe do in the final third, they’re going to continue getting bad results unless they improve at the back.

Creating chances and scoring goals has been little problem for the Iron at home this season, though they’ve simply not been able to compete at the other end. They’re averaging an impressive 1.8 expected goals per home match, though they still have a negative average expected goal difference of -0.39, which shows just how bad they’ve been from a defensive point of view.

Given that Scunthorpe’s defensive problems won’t alleviate, Oxford ought to fancy their chances ahead of this match. After a poor start to the campaign, Karl Robinson’s men have improved in recent weeks, while they’ll be feeling confident having won 3-0 against Shrewsbury last time out.

Performance wise, the U’s haven’t exactly sparkled in recent away games, but they’ve done a better job of keeping teams out than Scunthorpe have at home. However, while they’ve kept three clean sheets in their last five on the road, Robinson’s men haven’t looked overly strong from a defensive point of view. They were lucky not to concede more than one against Charlton in their most recent away game, while their average of 1.65 expected goals against doesn’t exactly tell us that they’ve been watertight.

In truth, this is a fixture where both teams will be targeting three points. Scunthorpe will fancy themselves to dominate and outscore Oxford at home, while the visitors will be buoyed by the fact that their hosts cannot keep teams out. If we consider this alongside the fact that there’s been a whopping average of 3.99 expected goals at Glanford Park this season, then ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ appears to represent a small slice of value.