Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Predictions

• Sevilla have won five of their last seven games
• These sides have conceded a combined seven expected goals in four La Liga matches this term
• Atletico Madrid have won three of the last four meetings between the pair

Fortunate hosts heading for a reality check

Despite finishing just one point above the relegation zone last season, Sevilla were shock La Liga leaders after two rounds of the new campaign. 

A 2-1 win over 2025-26 Conference League runners-up Rayo Vallecano and a 3-1 victory at Athletic Bilbao earned them that honour, but there was a touch of fortune about both of those successes and their good luck may run out when Atletico Madrid visit the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan Stadium on Saturday. 

Both of their goals against Vallecano came via penalties – the winner being a 97th-minute spot-kick – and they created just 0.65 expected goals outside of those strikes, while Bilbao had a man sent off in the 11th minute last time, opening the door for Sevilla to prevail. 

Even with that red card, Bilbao won the expected-goals battle 1.37-1.26, highlighting just how fortunate Luis Garcia’s side have been in the early stages of the campaign. 

Simeone’s side to prove too strong for Sevilla

Atletico Madrid have started well enough, beating promoted Malaga 2-0 before a 2-2 draw with Villarreal in which the Yellow Submarine’s goals both came via penalties, and improvement is sure to come once Diego Simeone finds his best 11. 

Morten Hjulmand, Alex Grimaldo, Kang-In Lee and Cristian Romero have strengthened an already-elite squad – one which can cope without Julian Alvarez if he does move on – and they should make it four wins in five head-to-heads on Saturday.