Spezia vs Cremonese Predictions

• Spezia have gone unbeaten through their five home games this season, though they have drawn two of their last three.
• Cremonese, meanwhile, are winless since their return to Serie A, losing six of their nine games this season, but drawing three of their last five.
• Cremonese have conceded a league-high 19 goals this season, from a league-high tally of 20.2 expected goals against (xGA).

Spezia favourites for strugglers’ meeting

Sunday’s Serie A action sees two sides deemed likely relegation candidates do battle, as Spezia host Cremonese. While Spezia’s decent home record has helped them steer clear of the relegation zone so far this term, their underlying numbers suggest a season of struggle is ahead, but they will be hopeful of a crucial win against one of Serie A’s two remaining winless clubs.

Indeed, Cremonese have posted three draws and six defeats since their Serie A return, following up recent stalemates against Atalanta and Lecce with four-goal hammerings at home to Lazio and Napoli, cementing their status as the league’s worse defensive outfit. Cremonese’s tally of 19 goals conceded is unmatched in Serie A this season, and their record of 20.2 expected goals against (xGA) indicates they are by far the worst team in the division at limiting the quality of their opponents’ chances.

Another tough afternoon could await Cremonese at Spezia, whose home form belies their league position. Luca Gotti’s men have suffered five consecutive away defeats this season (although losses at Inter Milan, Juventus, Napoli and Lazio were predictable), but are yet to lose in five matches on their own turf in all competitions, winning three. Spezia are, judging by expected goals, shots and shots on target, Serie A’s least creative team, but their home form should give them confidence.

Backing Spezia a shrewd play – but beware the draw

Spezia’s good home record makes them favourites for a crucial win over Cremonese, who already look doomed to return to Serie B. However, the hosts’ poor attacking statistics – as well as Cremonese’s run of three draws in five games – means punters should beware the stalemate.

Gotti’s men are unlikely to blow any teams away while averaging an abysmal 8.89 shots per game, but the visitors’ lack of quality could make a 1-0 Spezia win a decent correct score prediction.

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