Ecuador vs Germany Predictions

• Ecuador have lost only once across their last 21 games under manager Sebastian Beccacece
• Germany have already won the group, and they’ll name a weakened side
• Ecuador generated 3.05 xG against Curacao, and only lost their opener due to an injury-time strike

Motivation is key in a must-win clash for Ecuador

Ecuador dropped two vital points against Curacao, and they are still without a goal at this tournament through their first two games. They’ve been exactly as advertised, a rock-solid defensive side that struggles to create openings going forward.

Breaking down a determined Curacao side that sat deep was always going to be a challenge for Ecuador, and Eloy Room’s all-time great performance in goal didn’t help, as he matched the tournament record of 15 saves to keep El Tri at bay.

That’s left Ecuador knowing that they need to beat Germany to stand any chance of making it out of the group. However, they won’t be facing a full-strength German side. Julien Nagelsmann’s team have won two from two to secure top spot in the group, and they can ring the changes in New Jersey.

Nagelsmann’s side are easy to oppose

Germany head into this clash on an 11-game winning streak, following their 2-1 win over the Ivory Coast. However, the Germans failed to keep a clean sheet against Curacao in their opener, and they benefited from the inexperience of the Ivory Coast, who failed to capitalise on some good opportunities in that defeat.

Germany have had shaky spells through both games, and their winning streak started in a qualifying campaign where they were far from convincing. It’s worth considering that they’ve travelled to Houston, Toronto, and now New Jersey from their base in North Carolina ahead of this game. They’ve got nothing to play for, and they’ll be naming a second-string side with an eye on the next round.

Meanwhile, Ecuador haven’t been as bad as their results have suggested. They lost to an added-time winner against the Ivory Coast, and they generated 3.05 Expected Goals in that goalless draw with Curacao.

Ecuador’s set-up should be better suited to facing a more progressive side. Nagelsmann’s side will still look to dominate possession, and the rate at which they’ve been leaving gaps at the back should make life easier for Ecuador.

Sebastian Beccacece has taken charge of 22 games as Ecuador manager, and his side have lost only twice, while conceding just eight goals. While they’ve left themselves in a desperate position, Ecuador seem perfectly set up to grind out the win they need.

Caicedo can capitalise on German setup

Midfield runners have caused problems for Germany through their first two games in North America. Curacao midfielders Livano Comenencia and Leandro Bacuna each had two shots from central midfield in their opener, with Comenencia scoring their equaliser.

Franck Kessie put the Ivory Coast in front in Germany’s second game, and the midfielder had a couple more opportunities by arriving late in the box to get on the end of crosses.

Ecuador are clearly lacking in the final third, but Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo could be the man to step up for them. With Ecuador set to revert to a 3-4-3, Caicedo should be on the right-hand side of Ecuador’s central midfield pairing – the position from which Comenencia and Kessie scored. Caicedo scored for Ecuador in their third group game at the last World Cup, and their biggest name is a massive price to find the net against Germany.