Italy vs Republic of Ireland Predictions & Betting Tips

Italy wrapped up the top spot in the group with their late winner against Sweden on Friday. This followed on from a comfortable win against group favourites Belgium in their opening game, but their performance against the Swedes wasn’t anywhere near as good.

Italy dominated possession, as you would expect, but throughout the first half they didn’t seem to have any penetration into Sweden’s back line. Their lack of pace resulted in them just playing in front of the Sweden defence for the majority of the match, but the introduction of Simone Zaza for Graziano Pelle gave them a different dimension. With half an hour to go they started to press more and find more openings against a tiring Sweden defence and midfield. Zaza proved his worth in the closing stages as he knocked the ball down for Eder to rush onto, with the striker coolly slotting the ball past Andreas Isakkson to win the match with two minutes remaining.

Their 2nd win in two group matches wrapped up the top spot for Italy, and it allows Antonio Conte the option of resting some of his key players. This could be vital for the rest of the tournament as they have an ageing squad and will be thankful of the lack of pressure on them in the final group game.

This is a blessing for Republic of Ireland. They performed decently in their opening group match against Sweden and came away with a 1-1 draw. Wes Hoolahan had given them the lead with a sweet strike only to have it cancelled out by a Ciaran Clark own goal with 20 minutes left to play.

The game against Belgium brought a new set of challenges to the forefront. They defended well throughout the first half and looked to be stifling Belgium, but three minutes into the second half Romelu Lukaku found some space on the edge of the area and finished beautifully to open the scoring. With Republic of Ireland pushing for an equaliser their defensive organisation suffered, and Axel Witsel made full use of that when he made a late run into the box to head in a second after 61 minutes. Nine minutes later Romelu Lukaku added his second of the game and put the match beyond all doubt.

This leaves Republic of Ireland at the bottom of their group with one point and a poor -3 goal difference. A win against Italy could potentially see them finish 2nd, although that would require a large win for them and a Belgium loss to Sweden. It’s more likely to put them in 3rd place though, where four points should be enough to send them through as one of the four best 3rd place finishers.

Italy struggled to break down Sweden’s defence on Friday, and with their key players likely to be sitting out I think they’ll struggle even more in their attacking ability. The potential resting of their strongest area: Defence should lead to many more openings for Republic of Ireland, so I think they have a real chance of getting a result on Wednesday against an Italy side who have no motivation to get the win.

This makes odds of 4/7 for a Republic of Ireland Win or Draw Double Chance look decent value, despite it’s short appearance, and I’m going for that along with a 1-0 win for them at 7/1.