Plymouth Argyle vs Luton Town Predictions

After their usual mid-season turnaround in fortunes, Derek Adams’ men have pulled themselves clear of the drop-zone and are now looking forward. They may have lost against promotion hopefuls Sunderland last time out, but that was their first defeat in five matches. Now back on home soil, the Pilgrims will be looking to bounce back.

The Pilgrims failed to compete away against Sunderland last time out, as they lost by two goals to nil, clocked just 0.51 expected goals for and conceded 1.45, though they shouldn’t be judged too harshly for that effort. After all, they avoided a real battering, while their recent home form has been pleasing.

Prior to their long trip to the Stadium of Light, Plymouth beat Rochdale by five goals to one at Home Park, showing that they’ve got what it takes to punish poor defences. On that occasion, as they rattled off 26 shots, a staggering 14 of which hit the target, the Pilgrims looked menacing going forward. Repeating such an effort against a very, very strong Hatters side will be difficult, though Derek Adams’ men can at least draw on such a pleasing effort, while the fact that they’re now unbeaten in five at home, four of which they’ve won, allows them to feel confident.

Unfortunately for Plymouth, who have played well at home in recent weeks, they’re up against a Luton side that is extremely tough to beat. Saturday’s visitors have now avoided defeat in each of their last 22 league matches, while they’re unbeaten in ten on the road.

However, while the Hatters are on something of an extraordinary unbeaten run, they have looked less menacing on their travels than they have at Kenilworth Road. When they narrowly beat Fleetwood last time out, Mick Harford’s men clocked just 0.76 expected goals for, while they also only narrowly beat Southend away from home recently, recording just 1.05 expected goals. Such efforts show that Luton are far from infallible.

Given that they’ve been so impressive this season and currently have a five-point lead at the top, it’s not easy to go against Luton, though they represent little value ahead of this match, especially given that some of their recent away performances have been somewhat lacklustre. Similarly, the hosts look to represent a slice of value at the current prices.

Plymouth, who currently average both more goals for and more expected goals for at home than Luton do on the road, have delivered a string of pleasing performances on their own patch of late, while they proved that they compete against the top sides when outperforming Portsmouth in terms of expected goals at this venue a month ago. All in all, siding with the hosts on the ‘Draw No Bet’ market stands out as the best option.