Portugal vs Croatia Predictions

• Portugal have scored over 1.5 goals in five of their last nine competitive matches
• Croatia have conceded two or more goals in four of their last eight games
• Croatia have lost their last four games against top-10 ranked nations by exactly two goals

Dalic trying to camouflage Croatia’s weakness

Croatia coach Zlatko Dalic made a tactical tweak that paid dividends against Ghana last time out, but it is hard to see how he can prevent Portugal from overpowering his team in Toronto on Thursday.

Vatreni punched their ticket to the round of 32 with a hard-fought 2-1 win over the Black Stars in which Dalic deployed a back four and sacrificed width to pack the midfield.  The team struggled in a back-three shape against England and created little of note versus Panama, but the system functioned well against Ghana.

Yet Croatia’s lack of pace and attacking penetration in wide areas could be exploited by a more creative midfield. Portugal arguably have the best trio in the World Cup in their engine room and, although they were not able to dominate a high-quality 0-0 draw with Colombia on Sunday.

Felix has found his scoring boots

Roberto Martinez will still be haunted by a similar goalless group game at the last World Cup when his Belgium side were knocked out by Dalic’s Croatia. The reason for that was not tactical, however, but had more to do with Romelu Lukaku’s woeful display of finishing.

The Portugal boss is likely to keep faith with the same lineup for this clash, featuring a front three of Pedro Neto, Joao Felix and Cristiano Ronaldo. The 41-year-old talisman struggled to make a telling contribution against Colombia, being caught offside as many times as he touched the ball in the box.

He may turn up again in this contest, but there is probably better value elsewhere in goalscorer markets now. Ronaldo’s Al-Nassr teammate Felix is coming off his most prolific club campaign and has a very good record against Croatia with three strikes in four previous clashes.

Portugal can bag a brace in Toronto

In terms of who goes through, it should be Portugal. They have a much stronger starting XI and better options on the bench to make an impact in a tight game. If Portugal get their noses in front and Croatia can’t get back into it without defending higher, they are going to be vulnerable to counter-attacks.

Vatreni have conceded multiple goals in four of their last eight games and each of their last four against top-10 ranked opponents, who all won by at least one goal. Backing the Portuguese to score at least two goals appeals at the odds of around 10/11 given they have hit over 1.5 goals in five of their last nine competitive clashes.