Walsall vs Fleetwood Town Predictions

As things stand in League One, Walsall are struggling; they’re not quite in the relegation zone, but as they’re just two points above Bristol Rovers, who’re in 21^st place, they’re playing with fire. That said, the Saddlers have tried to improve their fortunes of late. They beat fellow strugglers Bradford in their last home match, while they managed to hold Burton to a draw last time out. After two decent results, Dean Keates’ men will be hoping to continue in the same vein.

They certainly didn’t play terribly, while they were anything but outclassed, though Walsall could have few complaints with the fact that they failed to beat Burton last time out. At the back, the Saddlers kept things nice and tight, as they gave away just 0.85 expected goals and duly kept a clean sheet, though they only mustered 0.75 expected goals for, which is poor. A repeat of their defensive antics at Pirelli Stadium will see them do well on Saturday, though they’ll probably need to offer quite a bit more going the other way if they want to come out on top.

In their last home match, Walsall did offer a decent amount going forward, but they were typically poor at the back. They clocked a reasonable 1.56 expected goals for against Bradford on that occasion, while they got the ball in the net on three occasions. However, the fact that they shipped 2.42 expected goals suggests that they were very fortunate to come out on top. Keeping things tight at the back has been a problem for the Saddlers at home this season. They shipped 2.59 expected goals when losing at home to Wimbledon prior to their victory over Bradford, while they conceded twice against both Rochdale and Scunthorpe prior to that. Keates’ men have also shipped an average of 1.68 expected goals for and have conceded at least twice in 65% of their matches at Bescot Stadium.

Fleetwood aren’t the most menacing of teams on their travels, but they’ve shown that they can score goals of late, notching in each of their last four away matches. During that time, they’ve taken advantage of the poor defensive weaknesses of both Bradford and Wimbledon, so Joey Barton’s men will fancy themselves to do plenty of damage against a dodgy-looking Walsall rear-guard.

Not only have the visitors looked useful from a goal-scoring point of view in their recent away matches, but they’ve not done badly at the back either. The Cod Army have now kept three clean sheets on the bounce on their travels, though some of their previous efforts suggest that Walsall, who’ve scored in eight of their last ten at home, scoring a total of 13 goals during that time, can make offensive headway. Saturday’s visitors have conceded away against the likes of Rochdale, Bristol Rovers, Plymouth, Gillingham, Peterborough and Southend, all of whom currently reside in the bottom ten. They also conceded some rather poor expected-goals figures of 1.47, 3.12, 1.88 and 1.85.

Taking everything into account, the bet that stands out is ‘Over 2.5 Goals’. Walsall are no strangers to being involved in high-scoring games at home. In fact, 71% of their matches at Bescot Stadium this season have seen at least three goals go in. Furthermore, Fleetwood’s efforts away against bottom-half teams this season suggest that they should both thrive offensively but struggle a tad at the back. Add in the fact that there’s been an average of 3.01 expected goals in Walsall’s home games during the current campaign and it’s easy to feel that ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ is currently somewhat overpriced.