Betting Blog

Championship Top Scorer Betting: Will Mitrovic Claim the Golden Boot?

As usual, the fight for the golden boot is fierce in the Championship. Back in the summer, we picked out three players to watch in the Championship top goalscorer betting. With a good chunk of the season gone we’re now looking back over those predictions and running through the current favourites.

In the summer we ran through recent golden boot winners for trends, finding that four of the last five winners of the golden boot have helped their side to a top-six finish. On top of that, there was a clear trend towards clubs who controlled matches and created opportunities when it came to the top-performing players. With our picks contending, that still appears to be the case.

Take a look at our Championship betting tips on our dedicated league homepage.

Aleksandar Mitrovic

While we’re still early in the season, the signs are that the Serbian is on the right path to improving on his numbers from the 2017/18 campaign. He was good value for his 12 goals in the back-half of that season, after joining from Newcastle in the January window on loan. His tally was what we expected from the chances he had. However, his scoring rate this time around is better.

This time it’s taken just 16 games for Mitrovic to hit 12 goals, while he’s done it from 61 shots this season, as opposed to 81 in 2018. He’s more settled having made his switch to West London permanent, while he’s a bigger part of the team now. At the turn of last year, he was a wildcard pick for an attacking side, now he’s the main number nine for a club with Premier League ambition and resources.

For club and country this term, Mitrovic has scored 18 times in 20 appearances. He’s lethal at this level, while he’s getting plenty of chances in the Championship. He’s among the leaders in terms of touches in the box with 75 to his name so far, while we see him as a worthy favourite to finish as the league’s top scorer.

Ollie Watkins

Back in the summer, we identified Brentford as a side to watch. The Bees have always been good for goals in recent years, while Neal Maupay was in fantastic form for them last season. We expected someone to step up and take the chances he was getting, with Said Benrahma our outside pick at 50/1.

However, his absence in pre-season has allowed Ollie Watkins to step up. The English forward has hit 10 goals already, matching his season totals for each of the last two campaigns. His conversion from a winger last season has gone well, with Watkins only narrowly behind Mitrovic in terms of touches in the box (74).

A problem for Watkins is his goals tend to come in bunches. For instance, he’s scored six times across his last 10 matches, but he’s failed to score in seven of those. Overall, the forward has played 16 times in the Championship this term, failing to score in 10 games (a scoring rate of just 37.5%).

Like Maupay last season, he has hit most of his goals from open play inside the box. However, the advantage he holds over Maupay is that he’s less reliant on his stronger foot. While the Brighton striker converted 60% of his chances with his right foot last term, Watkins has much more variation. That could be a major advantage, and if he starts gaining consistency then he’d be a real force in the second tier.

See why we backed Brentford for the top 6 in our Championship outright predictions.

Karlan Ahearne-Grant

It’s been a whirlwind year for Karlan Ahearne-Grant, who has played across the top three divisions in England. We picked him out in the top scorer race following a campaign which saw him score 14 times in 28 games for Charlton in the third tier, before hitting four Premier League goals with Huddersfield. He’s now in the Championship and has featured as the Terriers’ first-choice forward.

Grant has been a rare bright spark in a tough season for Huddersfield. They have found themselves just outside the bottom three. Grant has hit nine goals so far this season, marking him out as the main attacking threat for the Terriers. However, he needs the arrival of Danny Cowley to boost their fortunes.

Huddersfield have ranked 23rd in terms of shots in the Championship this term. That poor return is something they have to improve for Grant to continue to match the top strikers in the division. However, the former Charlton man has a near-guaranteed run in the side and a manager who is turning their fortunes around, so he remains in the hunt.

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