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Euro 2024 outright winner prediction & dark horses

Updated on 5:37pm GMT 3 June 2024
Euro 2024 outright winner prediction & dark horses

Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.

Euro 2024 kicks off in Germany next Friday and we’re setting the ball rolling on a week of outright tips with our main winner prediction, along with a couple of higher-priced alternatives.

Priced up with bet365, where new customers can get £30 in free bets by signing up below, England are 3/1 favourites heading into the tournament, while beaten World Cup finalists France are 4/1 and host-nation Germany are 11/2.

We’ll be covering all the major outright markets in the run-up to Euro 2024, along with our group profiles and best bets and extensive match previews for every single game! Make sure to keep an eye on our Euro 2024 page so you don’t miss a thing! (link to Euro 2024 league page here)


Euro 2024 outright winner betting odds

  • England – 3/1
  • France – 4/1
  • Germany – 11/2
  • Portugal – 8/1
  • Spain – 8/1
  • Italy – 14/1
  • Belgium – 16/1
  • Netherlands – 16/1

France to win – 4/1

France had a dismal time at Euro 2020 as they were stunned by Switzerland in the round of 16 but Les Bleus bounced back in style in Qatar 18 months ago as they reached the World Cup Final.

Didier Deschamps’ side may have narrowly lost to a Lionel Messi-inspired Argentina on penalties, but they retain arguably the best squad in international football and Deschamps knows exactly what it takes to win international silverware.

The former France captain is the only living man to have won the World Cup as both a player and a manager and he has been honing this side since he took charge in 2012, leading them to two World Cup finals and one European Championship final in that time.

The squad itself is packed with a seemingly perfect blend of talent, experience, and youthfulness and there are very few holes to pick in the team, which contains two of the top four most-capped French players and three of the top-four all-time leading goalscorers.

Kylian Mbappe, arguably the best player in the world and Golden Boot winner in Qatar, is unquestionably the star of the show. He has scored 22 goals in 24 international appearances since the beginning of 2022 and notched 44 times in his final season at PSG.

Les Bleus do have a relatively difficult group, but they should come out on top of Netherlands, Austria and Poland, which may set up a semi-final meeting with England providing the Three Lions top Group C and progress to the final four.

France beat England in the World Cup and it is hard to consider them outsiders against any side in the tournament.


Portugal to win – 8/1

Should frontrunners England and France top their group, that leaves the two favourites for the tournament on the same side of the bracket and that opens the door for a team on the other side of the draw to spring a surprise.

Portugal, who beat France in the Euro 2016 final in Paris and made it to the semi-finals in 2012, won all ten of their Euro 2024 qualifiers by an aggregate scoreline of 36-2 and they have failed to win just once since they were knocked out of the World Cup 18 months ago.

Captain Cristiano Ronaldo may be 39 years old, but his influence cannot be glossed over. He is the all-time leading international goalscorer (128), has scored more European Championship goals (14) than any other player, and is fresh from winning the Golden Boot in a fourth domestic league after notching 35 times in 31 appearances in the Saudi Pro League.

Ronaldo is far from the only danger man in Roberto Martinez’s squad, which is playing with much more attacking freedom than the negative style of play predecessor Fernando Santos employed.

Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Joao Felix, Rafael Leao and Diogo Jota are all genuinely world-class on their day and the spine of the team, while ageing, still has at least one more tournament in them.


Denmark eachway – 40/1

Denmark are another side that could find themselves on the more favourable side of the bracket, with their likely finish as runners-up in Group C setting up a potential tie with host nation Germany, who have not played any competitive football since the World Cup.

The Euro 1992 winners didn’t have the best of times in qualifying but they possess plenty of game-changing players.

Rasmus Hojlund showed huge signs of improvement in the second half of his first season at Manchester United, while the likes of Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Christian Eriksen, Andreas Christensen, and Joakim Maehle add influence across the entire pitch.

De Rod-Hvide sprung a surprise in the last European Championships and they look a big price in the each-way market to go one step further in neighbouring Germany.


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