Euro 2024 permutations ahead of the final group games
Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
Sunday marks the start of the last round of group stage games at Euro 2024, with 13 of the 16 spots in the next round up for grabs going into the 12 remaining group fixtures.
Before teams play their third – and in some cases final – games in Germany, we’ve taken a look at how things stand after two rounds. Don’t forget to see our 51/1 accumulator which runs from Sunday to Wednesday covering the final group matches.
Euro 2024 group permutations
Group A
Germany 6 points (Qualified), Switzerland 4, Scotland 1, Hungary 0
Final fixtures
Germany have secured their place in the last 16 and they’ll be confirmed as group winners if they avoid defeat against Switzerland in their final game. The Swiss are effectively through, they’d need to lose to Germany and see Scotland beat Hungary with a six-goal swing in terms of goal difference to surrender second.
Even if the Swiss slipped to third, four points has always been enough to make it through as one of the four best third-placed finishers. That’s encouraging to Scotland, as a win in their playoff for third with Hungary should see them through to the last 16.
Group B
Spain 6 (Q), Italy 3, Albania 1, Croatia 1
Final fixtures
Spain have guaranteed themselves as Group B winners with maximum points so far. They head to Cologne for their last 16 clash with one of the third-placed finishers next weekend.
Outside of that, the other three sides are still able to progress. A point for Italy against Croatia would see them secure second place, but the defending champions could drop to fourth with a defeat combined with a win for Albania.
With Croatia and Albania on a point apiece, a win for either side should take them into the next round. Should they both win, goal difference would settle second and third, with Albania’s -1 differential currently giving them the edge against Croatia’s -3.
Group C
England 4, Denmark 2, Slovenia 2, Serbia 1
Final fixtures
This group is incredibly tight, thanks to three of the first four games finishing 1-1. England lead the way and a win over Slovenia would guarantee top spot. A draw would leave Gareth Southgate’s side sweating on the other result, as they have a slender one-goal lead over Denmark.
The group is so tight that another 1-1 draw for the Three Lions along with a 1-0 win for Denmark would see first place decided by which team has the fewest cards. England have the edge there, with one booking to Denmark’s four so far.
England are guaranteed a top-three finish at worst, with enough points to be confident of making the next round in the unlikely event that they slip up in their last game.
The Danes’ clash with Serbia is effectively a playoff for second. Barring a surprise result for Slovenia against England, this looks set to be one of the two groups where only two sides progress.
Group D
Netherlands 4, France 4, Austria 3, Poland 0 (Eliminated)
Final fixtures
Poland are already out, with the other three sides expected to progress to the next round. A heavy loss for Austria could put them in danger of missing out, but a draw or even a single-goal defeat against the Netherlands likely guarantees their place in the next round. Austria still have an outside chance of top spot, with a victory taking them into the top two.
However, the Netherlands and France are favourites to win and little is splitting them for first place. The Dutch lead the way from France on goals scored, so there’s potential for a cross-country goal rush as the two European giants try to edge each other out for first place.
The way the bracket is shaping up, second place is set to meet Portugal and one of Germany or Spain before the final, while the winners have a fairly straightforward route to the last four. Both sides should make a strong push for top spot.
Group E
Romania 3, Belgium 3, Slovakia 3, Ukraine 3
Final fixtures
Slovakia vs Romania
Ukraine vs Belgium
Group E is wide-open, but let’s not break the calculators out just yet. This group could also be the most straightforward, as all four sides know a win gives them a top-two finish. Should both games finish level, then the standings remain the same and Ukraine would exit the competition despite earning four points.
The key thing to remember in this group is that head-to-head record is the first tie-breaker, goal difference is next and then it’s goals scored. Belgium trail Romania on goal difference because the four sides are level, but Belgium have the head-to-head tie-breaker between those two sides thanks to Saturday’s victory.
If one game finishes level and there’s a winner in the other, then goal difference would split the teams in second and third, again disadvantaging a Ukraine side who should really treat their last match as a must-win. Romania and Slovakia would both make the next round with a draw, which could rip the tension out of their game unless one side makes a push for top spot.
The most mind-boggling scenario would probably be Ukraine and Slovakia both losing. Ukraine would move into third thanks to head-to-head record regardless of how heavily they lose to Belgium, but their goal difference of -3 at best would likely eliminate them against the other third-placed finishers.
Fourth-bottom Slovakia’s record if they lost by a single goal could just be good enough to sneak through as one of the better third-placed sides, but they’d be edged out in favour of a Ukrainian side that is less likely to progress.
Group F
Portugal 6 (Q), Turkey 3, Czech Republic 1, Georgia 1
Final fixtures
Georgia vs Portugal
Czech Republic vs Turkey
Portugal are through as group winners. They’ll meet a third-placed finisher in Frankfurt next Monday.
Turkey will finish second in the group with a draw against the Czech Republic, while only a win will do for both the Czechs and Georgians. Turkey’s three-goal loss to Portugal means a defeat in Hamburg would likely eliminate them due to their goal difference.
The advantage these sides have is that they play the final games of the group stage, so they’ll know what kind of record is needed for a third-placed side to progress. If results break their way, Turkey could qualify before their last match.
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