Content Editor at Free Super Tips, Alex was born in the shadow of Old Trafford and is an avid Man Utd fan. After graduating from university he combined his love of football, writing and betting to join FST and now closely follows goings-on in all of the top European leagues.
Gameweek 6 of the Premier League turned out to be another profitable weekend for our corners and cards predictions, with the corners market being especially kind to us with 2.8 points of profit. This comes a week after our predictions in the cards market yielded almost 5 points of profit, so it’s clear that there’s plenty of value to be found.
As always, we’ve delved into every Premier League match of the weekend to find the best value corners and cards bets around.
West Ham vs Manchester United
Saturday afternoon kicks off with a cracker of a match as far as the corners and cards are concerned, and the main focus is on the ill discipline of West Ham. The Hammers are showing no signs of cleaning their act up and continue to amass bookings at an alarming rate. They have picked up more cards than any other side since the start of the 2017/18 Premier League season, with the joint worst record last term and the most cards this campaign with 20 bookings in just six games.
Manuel Pellegrini has seen his team carded at least twice in all six of their league games this season, and with two of Manchester United’s three trips away this season seeing the opposition carded more than once it’s looking like a good opportunity for us. 9 of West Ham’s 12 games against top six opposition last season saw them pick up two or more cards, so backing West Ham Over 1.5 Team Cards at 8/11 looks a great bet.
West Ham’s 20 cards this season positively dwarfs the 8 cards that their opposition have been shown over the first six rounds of the season, and unsurprisingly they have been carded more times than their opposition in every match this season. They’re unlikely to get much sympathy from the referee either, with Michael Oliver dishing out 100 yellows and 5 red cards in his 30 Premier League games last season. Doubling down on West Ham’s lack of discipline, we’re backing West Ham 0 Card Handicap at 5/4.
We can find even more value in the corners markets in this early kickoff too. The Hammers have won five or more corners in just 2 of their 15 meetings with the Premier League top six since the start of last season, with none of their 7 home matches during this period yielding any more than 4 corners in a game for them. Manchester United have conceded five or more corners in two of their six league games this season, and with West Ham’s average corner count this season standing at a meagre 2.33 per game we like the look of West Ham Under 4.5 Team Corners at 4/5.
That’s not to say the visitors will be trotting to the corner flag all that often either though. Both West Ham and Manchester United have seen the total corner count venture into double figures in just one of their six games this season, with The Hammers seeing an average of 8.5 corners per game and Man Utd’s rising slightly to 8.67 per game. Additionally, none of West Ham’s home games against the Premier League top six last season saw more than nine corners, with these six outings averaging a league low of 6.83 corners per game. This makes odds of 1/1 for Under 10 Corners look excellent value for money.
Wolves vs Southampton
Onto the 3pm kickoffs now, and we make our first stop at Molineaux for Wolves’ hosting of Southampton. The visiting Saints have been anything but saintly this season, picking up at least two cards in four of their six league outings. They’re facing a Wolves side who have seen their opposition carded more than once in five of their six Premier League games. Overall, Southampton have picked up 13 cards in their six games, while Wolves have seen their opposition go into the referee’s book 14 times. With Southampton averaging two cards per game away from home last season, we think a Southampton Over 1.5 Team Cards bet at 4/6 looks a good choice.
Everton vs Fulham
There have been plenty of cards waved in the air so far in the Premier League season, and Everton have seen the red and yellows of the referees more than most. The Toffees have picked up two or more cards in four of their six outings this season, notching up 10 yellows and 2 reds in this period. Fulham have seen their opposition pick up two or more cards in two of their four matches against fellow bottom 14 Premier League sides, so given the excellent odds we think it’s worth backing Everton Over 1.5 Team Cards at 6/4.
Huddersfield vs Tottenham
One place we’re not expecting an ill-tempered affair is the John Smiths Stadium. Just two of Tottenham’s six outings this season have seen more than three cards dished out, with both of their trips away against bottom 14 opposition falling into this category. Huddersfield are one of the leaders in the fair play awards too, and only one of their six league games this season has seen four or more cards. The Terriers have seen a grand total of 5 cards thrust skywards by the referee in their two games against top six opposition, and last season only three of their 12 meetings with the top six ended with more than three names in the book. All this makes odds of 5/6 for Under 3.5 Total Cards look very attractive.
Huddersfield’s low cards tally may be commendable, but their corner count isn’t something to shout about. They have won four or more corners in just one of their six games this season, and they’re facing a Spurs side who have conceded 13 corners in their four matches against bottom 14 opposition so far. Only one of these four games saw Tottenham’s opponents win five or more corners, and Huddersfield only breached the five corner mark three times in 12 meetings with the top six last season. Therefore, we’re opting for Huddersfield Under 3.5 Team Corners at 11/10.
Manchester City vs Brighton
Manchester City have been utterly dominant at times this season, and that dominance doesn’t stop at goals and possession. They have trotted over to the corner flag a ridiculous 51 times in the league this season, averaging 8.5 corners per game. This is a slight improvement on last season’s average of 7.64 corners per game when at home against the bottom 14 sides of the Premier League, and they’re facing a Brighton side who have conceded 17 corners in their three away games this season. Pep Guardiola’s men have won at least eight corners in all but one of their league games this term, so we’re backing Manchester City Over 7.5 Team Corners at 4/6.
Strangely enough, Manchester City’s almost complete control of the ball doesn’t give them the advantage you would expect in the cards department. In fact, they have only seen their opposition booked six times this season, and only twice have their opposition received more than one card in a single match. The Seagulls have limited their card count to four bookings in their three games against top six opposition this season, and they only picked up seven cards away from home against the top six last term. Brighton’s chances of remaining card-free are increased by Dale Stephen’s absence after he was injured last weekend, with Stephens accounting for two of their bookings this term and six last season. Lee Mason isn’t one for getting an itchy card-finger either, averaging just 2.5 cards per game in the Premier League last season. All of this makes backing Brighton Under 1.5 Team Cards at 5/4 look a great choice on Saturday.
Newcastle vs Leicester
Leicester will be lucky to keep their own card count so low though. the Foxes averaged 1.89 cards per game when away from home last season, and they have already picked up 14 cards this season to boost that average to 2.33 cards per game. They have received at least two cards in four of their six Premier League outings this season, and face a Newcastle side who saw their opposition card 1.84 times per game when at St James’ Park last season. We’re looking at a Leicester Over 1.5 Team Cards bet at 4/5.
Chelsea vs Liverpool
Saturday evening takes us to Stamford Bridge for the marquee clash of the weekend, with Liverpool looking for revenge for their midweek Carabao Cup elimination. We could be in for a feast of goals if we’re lucky, but that’s where the gluttony could end. Only two of Chelsea’s Premier League games this season have seen four or more cards handed out, and Liverpool have only seen the cards tally hit four once in the league. Both Chelsea and Liverpool have received just five bookings in the league this season, and neither of them were shown any cards in their matches against fellow top six opposition. With Chelsea’s home games against the top six last season averaging 3.6 cards per game, and Liverpool’s away games to the same opposition averaging 3 cards per game, we really like the look of Under 4.5 Total Cards at 8/13.
The potential for set pieces isn’t looking much more promising either. The Blues have seen more than nine corners in just one of their league outings this term, and their visitors have only watched the corner count venture into double figures twice. Neither teams’ meetings with fellow top six opposition have seen ten or more corners, and Chelsea’s home games against the top six last season averaged a tiny 8.6 per game. This was the second lowest average in the top flight, and their only top six meeting this season saw just six corners taken against Arsenal. So, we’re definitely backing Under 9.5 Corners at 10/11.
Cardiff vs Burnley
It might not be the Super Sunday fixture we’re used to seeing, but Cardiff hosting Burnley could prove a crucial result when the points are tallied up in May. Both of these sides are rather unfairly deemed as foul-happy teams, but the statistics paint a different picture. Burnley have only been carded more than once in three of their six league outings this season, and only in one of their three trips away to bottom 14 sides. Cardiff have only seen their opposition carded two times or more in two of their six outings, so a bet of Burnley Under 1.5 Team Cards at 5/4 looks a very good option for Sunday afternoon’s clash in Wales.
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace
We have to wait until Monday to hone our focus onto any particular player, and that player is Wilfried Zaha. The Crystal Palace winger is more often referred to as being on the other end of poor challenges, so much so that he has become increasingly frustrated at his lack of protection over the last few weeks. There’s a very good chance he could emerge from the tunnel at the Vitality Stadium already wound up, and that’s not a particularly good situation for the Eagles’ star man.
The Ivorian has already picked up three yellow cards this season. These came against Fulham, Huddersfield, and Watford, and the eagle-eyed among you will notice that all of those games were away from home. Adding to Zaha’s chances of going into the book, Bournemouth have seen their opposition carded a huge 19 times this season, including nine times in their three home matches against bottom 14 clubs. Mike Dean isn’t one to shy away from brandishing the cards either, with his 3.72 bookings per game last season making him the strictest referee in the league. All of this adds up to the fact that odds of 9/4 for Wilfried Zaha to go into the book look incredibly generous.
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