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Simulating the Premier League season: Where is the title heading?

Updated on 2:36pm GMT 12 April 2024
Simulating the Premier League season: Where is the title heading?
Alex Wrigley
Alex Wrigley
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Content Editor at Free Super Tips, Alex was born in the shadow of Old Trafford and is an avid Man Utd fan. After graduating from university he combined his love of football, writing and betting to join FST and now closely follows goings-on in all of the top European leagues.

Entering the final seven gameweeks of the Premier League season, we are left salivating over one of the closest title races we have seen in years as Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City battle it out at the top.

Just one point separates top-of-the-ladder Arsenal from defending champions Manchester City in third and none of the top three have to play one another.

Despite their standing as the bottom-placed of the trio, Manchester City are still favourites in the outright market, but I have been crunching the numbers to figure out who is actually the most likely to top the pile come May.

Premier League outright winner odds

  • Man City – 6/4
  • Arsenal – 7/4
  • Liverpool – 9/4

Odds correct at time of writing at 14:00 BST on Friday, 12th April from bet365.

Crunching the numbers

Based on expected goals for and against figures for the season so far, I simulated each of the leading teams’ remaining matches 10,000 times to determine how many times we can expect them to win, draw, and lose.

From there, I calculated the expected points figure for each fixture, shown below, to simulate how the season might unfold.

From there, I cumulatively added each week’s expected points to the current tally, plotting the results on a graph to show the likely winner come the end of the season.

Spurs could prove decisive

As the table above shows, Arsenal’s home match against Aston Villa this weekend is expected to be a potentially decisive fixture, while GW35’s North London Derby could also see the Gunners lose ground, much to the delight of Spurs fans everywhere.

For Liverpool, trips to Fulham and Everton in GW33 and GW34 respectively could be harder than they perhaps first appear, while their trip to Villa Park on the penultimate day of the season is massive.

Manchester City are expected to sail through the next few fixtures and may head into the final weeks of the season at the top of the table, but a trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium could be the turning point.

And the (expected) verdict is in

These simulations suggest that Liverpool could take the title into their own hands around GW35 and see off all challengers to the end, with Arsenal coming in second and Man City a close third.

Considering they are currently touted as the least likely to lift the trophy, they look a solid price at 9/4.

All being told, just 1.25 expected points separate all three sides by the end of GW38, with Liverpool pipping Arsenal to the post by a mere 0.6 expected points.

Such tight margins attract attention in the League Winning Margin market on bet365, where prices of 5/2 are on offer for the Premier League to be decided by goal difference.

Premier League winning margin odds

  • Goal Difference – 5/2
  • 1-3 Points – 1/1
  • 4-6 Points – 11/4
  • 7-9 Points – 20/1
  • 10 or More Points – 80/1

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