11th Oct - Rangers vs Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays rejoiced their return to the postseason and they started as many people’s favourite to make it out of the American League and into the World Series. Two games into their first round series and they head to Texas on the brink of elimination. They need three straight victories after losing both of their home games.

The extra innings loss on Friday night was especially devastating, but there’s been a general failure in the game plan for the Blue Jays. They were supposed to knock this Rangers’ pitching rotation out of the park, but Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion and co have scored only seven runs across the two games.

Marco Estrada held batters to an AL low .183 average after the All-Star break. He’s the first pitcher to face the music in this situation. He’ll need his best stuff and he’ll need run support.

What makes Texas’ performance all the more impressive, is that the player who led their late season charge, third baseman Adrian Beltre, left game one early and is still day-to-day. His status for Sunday is unknown, but it feels unlikely that Texas will risk him.

Martin Perez is on the mound tonight, he’s thrown better than his 3-6 record perhaps indicates, lefty’s often have a tough time against this line-up and Perez is a home run candidate.

Three Reasons for Betting Tips

1. Perez better than statistics indicate

It’s easy to look at his record and discount him, but Perez has been a very able member of this rotation down the stretch. In 11 starts since the calendar turned to August, he’s given up more than three runs just twice and he’s pitched at least six innings in nine of those starts.

2. Game tension

The game’s have generally been more tightly played than might have been expected of these two hitting line-ups. We don’t think that’s a coincidence, attention to detail is a big factor for both clubs.

3. Looking at the odds

We’re getting close to even odds on the Game Total Under 9.5 in this match-up, it’s hard not to like that in what should be a close and tight game possibly decided by one moment or big play.