Akhisar Belediye vs Sevilla Predictions

Having returned from their trip to Seville off the back of a 6-0 drubbing, Turkish side Akhisar aren’t likely to be feeling too confident ahead of this fixture. Thursday’s hosts have now lost each of their first three matches in Group J, so it appears that that they’re heading out without a fight, though manager Cihat Arslan will be hoping to see his side deliver an improved performance now that they’re back on their own patch.

Considering the drubbing that that they faced a fortnight ago, Akhisar may just be caught in two minds as to how to approach this fixture. On the one hand, they will desperately want to avoid another hiding, though they’ll also want to get more competitive in the final third, which will require them to be a bit more expansive, which in turn could allow Sevilla, who looked rampant in the reverse fixtures, to run riot. That said, the Turks will feel that they can do better at home.

While Sevilla were deserving winners a fortnight ago, the score-line did flatter them slightly, as the fact that the Spaniards ended the fixture with an expected goal difference of +1.55 suggests. The fact that Akhisar emerged with an expected-goals for count of 1.17 also suggests that the Turks did get perhaps more offensive than the result would have us believe.

What’s more, from a performance point of view, the hosts haven’t been as bad as one might think. They were very unlucky to lose at home to Krasnodar, while they did more than enough to beat Liege in Belgium. They’re creating chances, aren’t giving away as much as the basic stats suggest, while the underlying data doesn’t exactly paint them in the worst light. Akhisar are averaging 1.31 expected goals for and 1.5 against.

Unlike their hosts, Sevilla have collected six points and have looked good in doing so; however, their best efforts have come at home. The Spaniards lost their first away match, conceding two goals in the process, so there is hope for the hosts.

With what Pablo Machín’s men did in the final third against the Turks a fortnight ago, coupled with what they’ve done in the group so far, which is score a remarkable 12 goals, it’s easy to see Sevilla enjoying themselves in the final third, though they’ve not exactly looked like a side that is built to keep clean sheets. Both Liege and Krasnodar breached the Andalusians and after they came close on a few occasions in the reverse fixture, Akhisar will feel that they can do so too.

Given how the first match panned out, and with Akhisar averaging 1.31 expected goals and Sevilla averaging 2.62, the bet that catches the eye is ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’. Given their current predicament the hosts must attack, while Sevilla won’t sit back, so an open game, one not short of chances at either end, should unfold at Spor Toto Akhisar Stadium on Thursday night.