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Andorra vs Latvia Predictions

  • 17:00
  • Expired
  • Estadi Nacional

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Tip Reasoning

The UEFA Nations League has certainly allowed the Andorrans to get more competitive on a more regular basis, as the hosts come into this match having avoided defeat in three of their last four matches. After coming from behind to get a point against the best side in the group last time out, Koldo Álvarez’s men will fancy themselves to collect three points for the first time since the competition began.

On paper, Andorra have done well since going up against teams of a similar ability, though the bare results don’t tell us everything. Monday’s hosts did secure a 1-1 draw against Georgia last time out, which may suggest that they played well, though they were very, very fortunate to score, let alone take a share of the spoils. On that occasion, the Andorrans created just 0.39 expected goals, which is the best they’ve managed yet in this competition, and they conceded 1.14. Such stats don’t exactly tell us that Georgia should have run away with proceedings, but the visitors were the only ones with the right to be disappointed with the result.

If a game where they clocked 0.39 expected goals is Andorra’s best attacking effort, then it’s not difficult to work out where Koldo Álvarez’s men falter. Going forward, Monday’s hosts have very little quality, both in terms of creativity and end-product. In League D, they’re averaging just 0.14 expected goals for, while they’re averaging a measly 3.8 shots per match. With three shots on target in five Nations League games, it really is surprising that the Andorrans have registers two goals.

Latvia are a poor side too. The visitors have done little to earn the two points that they have, though even a team of their rather limited ability ought to come out on top against a home side that simply cannot make their presence felt in the final third.

Even with an average of just 0.68 expected goals for, Latvia are somewhat superior to their hosts, and even though they failed to come out on top in the reverse fixture, drawing 0-0, they should be coming out on top here.

With just 0.03 between them in terms of average expected goals against, the pair looking closely matched from a defensive point of view, so it really is a case of whoever does more in the final third wins. The hosts have nothing to offer offensively, which makes this Latvia’s to lose. In all honesty, the Latvians won’t get a better opportunity to take three points on the road and they’re backed to take it, though as they’re anything but prolific in the final third, the bet that stands out is ‘Latvia to Win & Under 2.5 Goals’.

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