AZ vs Dundalk Predictions, Betting Tips, & Match Preview

AZ, who finished fourth in the Eredivisie last season, began their UEFA Europa League campaign in the third qualifying round. Their progress through to the group stages has been pretty clear cut with a 3-1 aggregate win over Greek side PAS Giannina followed by a 3-0 aggregate win against Serbian Vojvodina in the playoff round. AZ are in top form, with four wins and a draw from their last five, and their only defeat in their last twenty two matches across all competitions, was a 1-0 defeat away to Dutch reigning champions PSV – a difficult match for any side. Although AZ haven’t won the Eredivisie since 2009, they’ve made some decent Europa League runs in recent history, qualifying for the quarterfinals in 2007, 2012 and 2014.

Irish side Dundalk have emerged as a dominant side in the Irish Premier Division thanks to back-to-back title wins. Dundalk started their 2016/2017 campaign in the 2nd qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League and their eventual progress through to the playoff round came from a series of impressive results: an aggregate 3-3 draw against Icelandic side FH in the opening round, where away goals were enough to see them through, and a 3-1 aggregate win over BATE in the third qualifying round. However, Polish side Legia Warsaw stopped them in their tracks, with a 3-1 aggregate defeat seeing Dundalk pooled into the Europa League group stage.

AZ come into this opening group stage match as huge 1/4 favourites for the bookies here. Whilst we feel that AZ are the far better side on paper, a price as short as this means we should certainly be able to find better value in other markets. Granted, AZ have unbelievable home form, winning all but three of their last twenty home matches (W17 D2 L1), but most notable for us in their recent matches is their ability to control the match with strong defensive performances. AZ have kept a clean sheet in eight of their last ten home matches across all competitions (two Eredivisie, two Europa League and four club friendlies). Combine that with the fact that four of AZ’s last six home matches had under 2.5 goals scored (two 2-0 wins, one 1-0 win, and one 0-0 draw) and both of Dundalk’s most recent away matches in Europe had under 2.5 goals scored – against similar standard competition – then the price of 13/10 for under 2.5 goals seems really decent value.

As such, under 2.5 goals at 13/10 and AZ to win 1-0 at 6/1 are our choice bets for this Europa League group stage match on Thursday.