Bari vs Cagliari Predictions

• Bari have won just one of their last four games
• Cagliari are unbeaten in their last eight games, winning six
• The hosts won just one of their home clashes with the top six in the regular season

Late strike gives Bari advantage

Cagliari were in the perfect position in the dying seconds of the first leg of their promotion showdown with Bari. They took a lead after nine minutes at home, at which point they looked to wrap up a home victory. In the last round, they were able to grind out a 0-0 draw at Parma after a 3-2 win in the first leg.

The Sardinians looked for a similar approach for the playoff final until Bari converted a penalty late on to level the tie at 1-1. The Italian playoffs are odd, as level games aren’t settled through extra time and penalties. Bari lost 1-0 at Sudtirol in the last round before claiming a 1-0 win at home. Despite the tie being level on aggregate, they progressed due to having a better regular season record.

That rule works against Cagliari in this second leg. A draw here would send Bari through, which means the hosts have little need to burst forward in the second leg. That last-gasp goal puts all the emphasis on Cagliari to dominate the second leg, changing the balance of the tie completely.

Visitors to build on great form

While Bari have the upper hand as it stands, they head into this clash having won only once across their last four games. They also won just one of their regular season home clashes with the top six, so they may struggle to get the job done against Cagliari.

Meanwhile, the visitors are unbeaten in eight, having won six of those. They are in a position where they need to win this clash, so that form should help them in this trip.

It also boosts the visitors that they tend to score a lot of their goals late on away from home. They almost scored too early against Bari in the first leg, but the Sardinians have scored almost a third of their away goals this season in the final 15 minutes. The hosts have conceded seven times in the final 15 minutes at home, so the longer this stays level the more it suits the visitors.

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