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Brighton vs Southampton Predictions

Published on 1:00pm GMT 21 May 2023

  • 13:00
  • Expired
  • The Amex Stadium

Over 3.5 Match Goals

Reason for tip

Brighton have seen over 3.5 goals land in four of their last six, while they host a Southampton side who have conceded at least three times in each of their last three trips. The Saints have seen high-scoring games against top sides this term, shipping three or more in five of six visits to the top seven, scoring in four.

23/20odds when tipped
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Brighton 4-1

Reason for tip

Southampton have lost eight of their last 11 games and each of their last four, so it’s hard to make a case for them in this clash. Brighton have slipped up a few times in the run-in but this should be a more straightforward clash. With the Saints shipping at least three goals in five of six visits to the top seven, back a heavy 4-1 home win.

16/1odds when tipped
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Brighton vs Southampton Predictions

  • Southampton have scored seven times across their last three away games, conceding 10
  • Brighton have seen over 3.5 goals in four of their last six games
  • The visitors have conceded at least three times in five of their six visits to the top seven
  • The Saints have lost eight of their last 11 and each of their last four

Seagulls search for consistency

Across their last three games, Brighton have lost 5-1 at home to relegation-threatened Everton, won 3-0 at Arsenal and then lost 4-1 at Newcastle. Their style of play does lead to wild swings in terms of their scorelines, but they head into Sunday aiming to find some consistency in their European push.

The Seagulls are sixth as we head into the penultimate weekend of action, while they play a game in hand against champions-elect Manchester City in midweek. They’ve got one week left to secure their first-ever taste of European football, starting with a straightforward clash against already-relegated Southampton.

Open Saints can put on a show

It’s fair to say the Premier League’s bottom club have gone down with a whimper. Since winning two of their first three Premier League games under Ruben Selles, Southampton have won none of their last 11 under the Spaniard, losing eight. They’re on the longest winless run in the division, while they head into this clash on the back of four defeats on the bounce.

However, the Saints’ have shown themselves capable of putting up a fight. They are woeful defensively – conceding 66 goals in 36 games – but they have scored three times in two of their last three games on the road. Unfortunately, they’ve conceded 10 goals across their last three away, letting in at least three goals in each.

Problems at the back force the Saints to get forward, where they are capable of causing problems. Given we’ve seen that Brighton’s adventurous play can result in heavy wins and defensive issues, their clash with the Saints could well be a thriller.

Back goals at the Amex

There have been 25 goals scored across Brighton’s last six games, which include a 6-0 win for the Seagulls against Wolves and a 3-1 loss at Nottingham Forest. They should be confident of a good result this weekend, with the Saints conceding at least three goals in all but one of their visits to the top seven.

However, we’ve seen the Saints score in four of those six trips, while only Tottenham have conceded more than Brighton across the sides in the top-half. Goals look to be the best way to approach this one, with over 3.5 my selection. The Seagulls should have a better day than their midweek visit to the North-east, so look to the hosts to claim a 4-1 victory.

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