Burton Albion vs Burnley Predictions

Burton’s season picked up again last time out when they got the better of Sunderland in front of a home crowd. With a confidence-boosting win behind them, Nigel Clough’s men will be looking for another big result when they host top-flight Burnley at Pirelli Stadium on Tuesday evening.

Burton have done reasonably well in this competition over the last few years. Tuesday’s hosts have gained some good results in the League Cup at times, though they’ve struggled to overcome Premier League opposition. Last year, the Brewers were put in their place by Manchester United, while they went out at the hands of Liverpool in 2016. That said, Burnley, who’re unlikely to be at full strength, are less threatening than either United or Liverpool.

In terms of their performances in this season’s renewal of the EFL Cup, Burton have done well. They battled hard to earn a 2-1 win away at Shrewsbury in the first round, while they beat Championship side Aston Villa by a goal to nil in the last round, though they were a tad lucky to achieve such a score-line, as Villa squandered a huge opportunity to draw level when missing a late penalty.

Unlike the hosts, this will be Burnley’s first fixture in the EFL Cup this season. Having gone out to Leeds on penalties at the first time of asking last season, Sean Dyche’s men will be hoping to do better, though it’s not as if they’ve been treated well by this competition in recent years. Burnley have emerged victorious from just one of their last six League Cup matches.

Last season, Burnley were known as a defensively astute, organised side, one that was very hard to break down, but such defensive solidity has somewhat gone out of the window this season. They won well at the weekend, though Bournemouth missed chances, while that was only their second clean sheet on the campaign. What’s more, Tuesday’s visitors have a poor defensive record in this competition in recent times, as they’ve kept a clean sheet in just one of their last six EFL Cup matches.

Moreover, Burnley have struggled to keep lower-level teams out in recent renewals of this cup. They conceded twice to Leeds last season, while since 2014, they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet against Sheffield Wednesday, Port Vale and Accrington Stanley.

Given Burnley’s record in this competition, coupled with the fact that Sean Dyche is unlikely to have it high on his list of priorities, which means that several changes seem likely, Burton should fancy their chances. In addition, the hosts had their fixture at the weekend postponed, so it is they who come into this fixture as the fresher side.

They may have been slightly fortunate when Villa missed a penalty in the last round, but overall their performance was a solid one. If they can deliver something similar against what is expected to be a much-changed Burnley side, then the hosts could very easily upset the odds, just as they did in the last round. Backing ‘Burton Draw No Bet’ represents a slice of value at the prices.