Charlton vs Doncaster Rovers Predictions

Charlton managed to take their end-of-season form into the play-offs on Sunday afternoon, as they went to Keepmoat Stadium and returned with an advantage. Manager Lee Bowyer may be slightly disappointed that his side didn’t return south with a two-goal lead – Doncaster got on the scoresheet with little more than two minutes remaining – but he will certainly be pleased with how the Addicks played. Now back in front of their own fans, Charlton will fancy themselves to finish off the job, while Doncaster have it all to do if they’re to reach Wembley.

There was plenty to like about the way Charlton went about their business at Keepmoat on Sunday afternoon. The Addicks took the game to their opponents, despite being away from home, as they created good-quality opportunities and limited Donny to half-chances. Having produced 2.08 expected goals and conceded just 0.92, Charlton deserved to emerge victorious. A repeat of that effort would be more than enough for Lee Bowyer’s men to progress.

Not only did Charlton do the business in the first leg, but they’ve also been outstanding at home this season. Bowyer’s men finished the regular campaign with the second-best home record in the division. No team won more home games than the Addicks during the regular season, while no team conceded less goals.

In addition to their basic home record, which is outstanding, Charlton’s underlying numbers at The Valley this season have been excellent. Bowyer’s men average 1.72 expected goals for in front of their own fans, while they’ve shipped an average of just 0.97. Charlton also rank as the fourth-best team in terms of shots on target conceded at home in League One this season, as they’ve surrendered an average of just 2.96. In contrast, Doncaster have conceded an average of 5.13 shots on target away from home.

At the end of the day, Doncaster are far from out of this tie, though it’s easy to feel that they’ve blown their chance. Had they got a positive result at home, then things would be different, though they head into the second leg at a disadvantage, which does not bode well given Charlton’s extremely positive home record.

Not only do the hosts boast an impressive record at The Valley, but Doncaster have generally struggled to be at their best on the road this season. Grant McCann’s men finished the regular campaign with only the 12^th best away record in the division. The fact that they lost three more games than they won away from home is displeasing. As is the fact that they conceded an average of 1.61 goals and 1.65 expected goals. Moreover, when they visited this venue earlier in the campaign, Donny lost by two goals to nil.

From a betting point of view, it’s very difficult to oppose the hosts. The best option appears to be ‘Charlton to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’. The Addicks, who proved that they can both create chances and score goals against Donny’s back-line on Sunday, average 1.78 goals for at home, while Friday’s visitors have conceded an average of 1.61 on the road.

Ultimately, when we consider that Charlton have offered more (in all areas) at home than Doncaster have on the road, it’s not overly difficult to conclude that there’s a slightly greater chance of the hosts scoring twice on route to victory than the current prices suggest.