Cyprus vs Croatia Predictions

• Croatia are without several key defenders through injury.
• Cyprus have posted xG numbers of greater than one in their last three home World Cup qualifiers.
• Croatia have won four of their last five qualifying matches.

Cyprus can surprise a reshuffled Croatian rearguard

Cyprus will aim to spring a surprise on Croatia when top faces bottom in Group H on Friday night.

No team in European qualifying has scored fewer goals than the Cypriots, who are tied on one goal with San Marino and Lithuania, but the underlying stats suggest they should have produced more.

Nikos Kostenoglou’s side, who started in a 3-4-3 formation against Russia last month, have posted xG numbers of greater than one in their last three home World Cup qualifiers.

They will attempt to take advantage of any uncertainty at the back when Croatia are forced into changes because of injuries to Dejan Lovren and Josip Juranović.

Zlatko Dalic has already stated that uncapped Bayern Munich starlet Josip Stanisic will start at right back and young left-back Josko Gvardiol will move into the centre of a defence that could lack cohesion as well as experience.

The 2018 World Cup bronze medallists can welcome back Luka Modric after he missed their September triple header through injury and Dalic is promising a greater emphasis on attack.

Cyprus have conceded 12 goals since they last put one in the back of a opponent’s net six games ago, so we’d fully expect Croatia to get a couple on Friday night.

But the intriguing aspect here could be whether the hosts end their dry spell and make one of the chances they have been creating count, so we are taking them to score in a 2-1 home defeat.