FK Krasnodar vs Olympiacos Predictions

An ideal first-leg victory looks something like the 4-0 win that Olympiacos bagged a week ago. Not only did the Greek outfit score plenty of goals, giving themselves a healthy aggregate lead, but they prevented their opponents from snatching an away goal, which essentially means that this tie is over before the second leg begins. After a horror show last week, Krasnodar have a mountain to climb.

They may have been away from home, but Krasnodar really ought to have done a much better job of containing their opponents last week. By conceding 19 shots, seven of which hit the target, and 1.82 expected goals for, the Russians simply failed to prevent Olympiacos from creating, while when push came to shove, they offered no resistance whatsoever.

Not only did Krasnodar struggle to contain the hosts, but they looked weak going forward too, as they registered eight shots, only one of which hit the target. An average of 0.46 expected goals tells us that scoring opportunities were not regularly created by Sergei Matveev’s men.

In contrast, the Greeks made light work of both forging scoring opportunities and putting the ball in the back of the net. They bossed the game from start to finish, were clinical and did a good job of restricting their opponents. Essentially, the hard work is done. Olympiacos now must ensure that they remain disciplined in Russia and a place in the Champions League group stages is theirs.

In the betting, given the current aggregate score-line, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ makes lots of appeal at the current prices. As touched on above, the visitors have done the hard work and thus their aim in Russia will almost certainly be to keep things nice and tight. They’re unlikely to adopt a cavalier approach, which could potentially allow the hosts to score easy goals.

If we combine the likely approach of Olympiacos with the fact that Krasnodar have so far looked very tame in qualifying, then it’s easy to feel that the chances of a relatively low-scoring game are greater than the current odds suggest. After all, in three UCL qualifiers, Krasnodar have posted expected goals for numbers of 0.46, 0.7 and 0.49, while they’re yet to score at home. Furthermore, just a single goal has been scored in Olympiacos’ two travelling qualifiers this term.