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Girona vs Atletico Madrid Predictions

  • 18:30
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  • Estadi Montilivi
Atletico Madrid

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Tip Reasoning

Having failed to win any of their last four matches, Girona will be hoping that Wednesday’s cup match brings them some joy. The hosts have avoided defeat in each of their last two, which bodes well, as does the fact that they’ve never lost against Atletico Madrid.

As far as the league goes, Girona haven’t exactly thrived of late. They’ve won none of their last five, while they’ve won just one of their last seven. That said, they did recently acquit themselves well when drawing 1-1 against Atletico, so there is hope for them here. Moreover, they’ve not been easy to get the better of in front of their own fans in recent times.

Eusebio Sacristán’s men have lost none of their last four at home, while they’ve played reasonably well during that spell. They’ve not been the most expansive side, even at home, but by adopting a pragmatic approach, especially in recent games, they’ve prevented their opponents from building up a head of steam. For example, in their last three at home, they’ve surrendered an average of just 0.93 expected goals, while they’ve also given a total of just six shots on target during that time. Such numbers bode well, especially since Atletico haven’t been overly threatening on their travels this season.

Wednesday’s visitors have only won twice away from home in La Liga this season, while they’ve been anything but the most creative side. In fact, given that they’re currently averaging a measly 0.82 expected goals on the road, Diego Simeone’s men have been fortunate to score ten travelling goals during the current campaign.

When Atletico visited this venue little over a month ago, they failed to impress. On that occasion, Los Colchoneros dominated possession, but they lacked quality in the final third, managed just three shots on target and emerged from the 1-1 draw with an expected goal difference of only +0.31. With that game still fresh in the memory, the hosts aren’t likely to show any fear on Wednesday night.

Given what we’ve seen from Girona at home of late, coupled with what Atletico have done on their travels, punters could do a lot worse than oppose the visitors, who look somewhat short in the early betting. As we saw when they recently drew 1-1 with Wednesday’s visitors, Girona can certainly compete on their own patch; they’re unlikely to give anything away cheaply and are simply not as far behind Atletico as the current prices suggest, particularly since the visitors have a second leg at home to get this tie won. All things considered, a small bet on ‘Girona +1 Handicap’ appears to represent a slice of value.

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