Hamburg vs Jahn Regensburg Predictions

Hamburg started their first ever season outside the German top flight with defeat, but Tuesday’s 1-0 win away to Dynamo Dresden marked their fourth consecutive Bundesliga 2 win. New boss Christian Titz, who was promoted from his position as manager of Hamburg II (reserves) over the summer, has dropped his new signings in at the deep end, with former-Rangers center back David Bates, forward Jairo Samperio and winger Khaled Narey all given active roles over the opening weeks. Unlike last season where a defeat or a bad performance seemed to knock the wind out of their sails, Hamburg have actually been very consistent since their disappointing season opener, and going from strength to strength each week since. Coach Christian Titz will no doubt be hoping to keep that momentum going ahead of another home fixture.

Jahn Regensburg look to be at the absolute opposite end of the scale to Hamburg, performing way under expectation after their 5th place finish last season. The Bavarians were, admittedly, fortunate to finish so high after being promoted from the 3. Liga in the season before that – in fact, they were as many points (8) off the promotion play-off as they were the relegation play-off – and it would be fair to say that they are a long way off being true competitors for the top spots. Regensburg held the 4th worst defensive record in the division come the end of the 17/18 campaign (53 goals conceded in 34 matches, not far off an average of two goals per game), and with 10 goals conceded already over their opening five matches (W1 D1 L3), you’d expect them to do a lot worse this time around. A trip to Hamburg isn’t exactly the sort of fixture coach Achim Beierlorzer needs to get his side back on track.

So, what do we like betting-wise here? Out of both teams, you have to like the look of Hamburg to get a result here, and backing them -1 Asian Handicap looks the smart bet – that is, if Hamburg win by two goals or more, the bet wins, but if Hamburg win by just one, the stake is refunded (anything else then the bet loses). Firstly, the North Germans’ summer transfer activity was very positive, with coach Christian Titz managing to keep hold of some of his bigger names since their drop down from the Bundesliga. Midfielders Lewis Holtby and Aaron Hunt as well as forward Pierre-Michel Lasogga, now back from a spell at Leeds, are some such players. Lasogga has even scored a whopping seven goals over his last four competitive outings (one hat-trick and two braces), so of all the players on the pitch, he’s the one you’d have to be looking at for goals on Sunday.

Secondly, when going back to the end of last season, Hamburg have won 8 of their last 11 matches across all competitions (W8 L3), and their new-found attacking flair makes them exactly the sort of side that will put huge pressure on the visitors’ poor defensive record – Jahn Regensburg have conceded 12 goals over their last four Bundesliga 2 away matches, something that won’t be helped by the absence of center back Sebastian Nachreiner. Regensburg have also won only one of their away days in the league in 2018 (W1 D5 L5), with a few of these defeats even coming against weaker opposition (for example, a 2-1 defeat away to the now relegated Eintracht Braunschweig). And with coach Beierlorzer’s side now proving less effective offensively than last season – Regensburg have failed to score in three of their last four league outings – you have to fancy the hosts for a clean sheet too. Our prediction: 3-0 Hamburg.