HJK Helsinki vs Roma Predictions

• Roma thrashed HJK Helsinki 3-0 on home soil last month.
• According to expected goals (xG) figures, Roma have been Serie A’s second-most creative team this season, as well as the fourth-most creative in the Europa League’s group stage.
• Only four teams have conceded more goals than HJK’s eight in the Europa League’s group phase this term.
• The hosts have lost three of their four Europa League group games by more than a one-goal margin.

Giallorossi face decisive Europa clash

Roma tasted continental glory when they won the Europa Conference League last season, but a return of two defeats from their first four games in Group C has left them facing the prospect of an early Europa League exit this campaign. A win at HJK Helsinki could alter the picture dramatically for Jose Mourinho’s men, however, and with the Special One likely to pick a strong team, a statement triumph is expected.

Roma suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to Serie A leaders Napoli last time out, but their recent form has not been too discouraging; Mourinho’s men have won five of their last nine games, only failing to beat strong opponents in Atalanta, Real Betis and the Partenopei during that run. The Giallorossi crushed HJK 3-0 in the reverse fixture last month, and according to expected goals (xG) figures, they have been Serie A’s second-most creative team – as well as the Europa League’s fourth-best attacking outfit – so far this term.

HJK, meanwhile, have lost three of their four Europa League group-stage games, with each of those defeats featuring more than a one-goal margin. The Finnish side have conceded eight goals in their group-stage campaign, a tally worse than all but four teams in the Europa League this season, and amongst all 32 participants, only Omonia (10 xGA) have allowed opponents to create more xG than HJK (8.2).

Roma can bare teeth

With HJK looking out of their depth in Europe and approaching Thursday’s game on the back of a league defeat to Kuopion Palloseura, backing Roma for a comfortable win appears to be a no-brainer.

While a handicap-busting win for the visitors is our main tip, a 2-0 Roma victory could represent a decent correct score prediction – HJK have only scored once in the Europa League proper this term.