Italy Women vs China PR Women Predictions

After starting so well, beating Australia on match-day one and Jamaica on match-day two, Italy knew their fate before the final group match. In contrast, China needed a draw off Spain last time out to ensure progression. Having hung on against the Spanish, the Chinese will be looking to frustrate the Italians, who’ve already shown that they can hurt inferior opposition.

On paper, Italy made light work of getting this far, though if we examine their efforts more closely, it’s easy to feel that they were less impressive than the fact that they qualified after two matches suggests. They did beat Australia on match-day one, though as they conceded 2.54 expected goals and emerged with an expected goal difference of -1.92, they were fortunate to do so.

Second time out, the Italians naturally strode to victory against a weak Jamaican side, though again, the margin of victory suggested that they were better than they were. It wasn’t that they didn’t deserve to score five goals, more the fact that their defensive efforts didn’t warrant a clean sheet. In fact, defending has been a problem for the Italians at almost every turn. They may have conceded just two goals, but they’ve presented teams with numerous chances, which is why they’ve surrendered an average of 1.69 expected goals.

China weren’t exactly impressive during the group stages, though they ought to fancy themselves to compete on Tuesday, especially having seen Italy struggle at the back.

It would be easy to view China’s efforts against Spain and assume that they’ve got little chance in this match, though on that occasion, out of necessity, they adopted a far more defensive style than usual. A 0-0 saw them through, so China sat back, soaked up pressure and did what they had to. As we saw against Germany, the Chinese aren’t great at defending against strong attackers, but they do offer a threat on the break, which bodes well ahead of an Italian side that has tended to adopt a somewhat open style.

From a betting point of view, ‘Both Teams to Score’ stands out as a viable option. The Italians, who’ve scored an average of 2.33 goals in France, have shown enough in the final third to cause the Chinese plenty of problems, though the efforts of the Asian outfit against Germany point towards them taking advantage of what is a less than watertight Italian rear-guard. Essentially, with Italy creating an average of 1.85 expected goals for, but also conceding an average of 1.69, there appears to be some juice in the price available on the above selection, so backing both teams to net offers punters value for money.