Magdeburg vs Hamburg Predictions

Survival will be the name of the game for Magdeburg after having managed to reach the second tier of German football for the first time in their history earlier this year. Unfortunately, this seems a big ask with manager Jens Hartel, who has been at the club since 2014, not having received much in the way of funding for investment over the summer. Magdeburg did boast the third-best attack and second-best defence in the third tier last season, and although their players don’t look fully adapted to the higher standard of football just yet, the East German based club have proven a tricky side to face. Last weekend’s 3-0 defeat away to Heidenheim ended a run of five consecutive league matches unbeaten (W1 D4).

Hamburg, like their hosts, have been in a sort of limbo in terms of draws, though theirs has been void of goals. Der HSV are going through their first “rough patch” since beginning life outside the German top flight and another 0-0 draw at home to Bochum last weekend was not only their third goalless draw in four league outings (W1 D3), but also the fourth time within five matches that Hamburg have failed to score. Coach Christian Titz, who was promoted from his position as manager of Hamburg II (reserves) over the summer, has been replaced by former Stuttgart boss Hannes Wolf over the last week and he must start to look for a solution to this lack of goals.

So, what looks worth backing in this match? Well, there are a couple of notable things that make us feel that this game will be high scoring. Firstly, even as a newly promoted side that are still going through that transition, Magdeburg have proven to have some reasonable attacking threat – in fact, the East Germans have scored ten goals over their last five matches, an average of two per game. Magdeburg’s problem, however, has been in their defense. Jens Hartel’s side have conceded the opening goal in four of their last five matches and thus been left chasing results on as many occassions. Hence, despite a goal drought, you’d actually have to fancy Hamburg to take advantage of that. All of Hamburg’s last 3 blanks have come against sides within the top seven – two of these hold the 2nd best defenses in the Bundesliga 2 – while Magdeburg are at the other end of the scales holding the 3rd worst defense in the league.

Interestingly, Hamburg’s best performances in this season have come on the road, unlike towards the end of their last top flight campaign, and they’ve scored at least one goal in three of their four away games so far (W3 D1). Hamburg’s attacking talents are on their day exactly the sort of players that have the ability to put huge pressure on the hosts’ poor defensive record, and the injection of a fresh outlook on the game from new boss Wolf should help to get them going again. And given that Magdeburg lost their only other home game against a top half side – the other four home draws were all against sides in the bottom half – we do actually like Hamburg to get themselves back on track on Friday. Our prediction: 2-1 Hamburg.