Mali vs Equatorial Guinea Predictions

• Under 2.5 goals were scored in all six of the group games featuring Mali and Equatorial Guinea.
• Mali have netted just four goals at the tournament, half of which came against Mauritania.
• Only the Ivory Coast have scored against Equatorial Guinea, who bested Algeria in their second group game.

Cagey last 16 affair awaits?

While Mali performed admirably to top Group F, courtesy of a shock win over Tunisia in their opening game, they netted just four goals across their three contests. They beat Mauritania, ranked 103^rd in the world, by two goals, but failed to beat a Gambia side ranked a lowly 150^th in the world by FIFA.

Under 2.5 goals have now been scored in seven of Mali’s last nine games, and we could be set for another cagey affair when they take on Equatorial Guinea for a place in the last eight. Equatorial Guinea’s three group stage games all finished 1-0. They followed up a narrow loss to a strong Ivory Coast team with a shock win over Algeria, before sealing qualification by beating Sierra Leone.

Equatorial Guinea are appearing in just their third Africa Cup of Nations campaign, their first when not hosting, but have a superb record across their previous two appearances. The National Thunder, currently ranked 114^th in the world, made the last eight in 2012 before finishing fourth at the 2015 edition. Their 13 games at AFCON tournaments to date have yielded a total of just 21 goals.

Under 2.5 goals looks likely

With Equatorial Guinea proving extremely adept at frustrating their opponents, making the knockout stages despite averaging a lower share of possession than all but three of the 24 teams at the tournament, under 2.5 match goals looks an extremely strong play, particularly considering that Mali can struggle to break teams down.

Equatorial Guinea have averaged more shots on target per game than Mali at this tournament, despite being content to sit deep and having played against stronger opponents thus far. With this in mind, backing them to continue their fairy-tale run with another 1-0 win could represent a decent correct score prediction.

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