Manchester City vs Inter Milan Predictions

• Manchester City have conceded in six of their last seven games away from the Etihad.
• Inter Milan have scored in 16 of their last 17 in all competitions.
• Ilkay Gundogan has scored six goals in his last six appearances.

Istanbul gears up for historic evening

The Ataturk Olympic Stadium was the scene of one of the most dramatic Champions League finals this century when Liverpool came from 3-0 down to beat AC Milan on penalties in 2005 and all signs point towards another dose of Milanese pain when the blue half of the city travel to Istanbul on Saturday.

Manchester City, hunting for the last missing jewel in their gaudy crown, are huge 1/5 favourites to complete an historic treble and, should they live up to their favouritism, would match their cross-city rivals’ 1999 achievement on Saturday.

Inter face mountainous task to defy rampant City

Pep Guardiola’s side, who lost their only previous Champions League final appearance in 2021, are the competition’s top scorers with 31 goals scored and have not lost any of their 12 outings.

Inter tasted defeat twice – both to Bayern Munich – in the group stages but are unbeaten in the Champions League since then, including a famous win over AC Milan in the semi-finals.

However, Manchester City are arguably the best side in world football and will pose a much greater threat than any team they have faced so far.

I Nerazzurri’s attack can deal damage to favourites

That being said, the Cityzens have not been perfect, especially at the back. They have conceded in 11 of their last 17 in all competitions and in six of their last seven away from the Etihad, while their only away win in the Champions League this season came all the way back in September against Sevilla.

Since breaking out of a bad run in March, Inter Milan have scored in 16 of their 17 games in all competitions and have scored nine goals in six knockout ties this term. Given Manchester City’s defensive frailties, backing both teams to get on the scoresheet looks a solid option for Saturday.

Eventually, I expect Manchester City to come out on top. They have an abundance of talent throughout their squad and Guardiola has the players available to change the game from the bench.

While they do often concede, the favourites haven’t conceded more than one goal since a 4-2 win over Spurs in January. They have conceded exactly once in 17 of the 30 games since then and, with cup finals often being cagey affairs, a 2-1 correct score prediction appeals.

Alternative markets offer value on Saturday

Erling Braut Haaland is perhaps the obvious choice to make the difference for Manchester City, but I prefer to back Ilkay Gundogan at much bigger odds.

The German midfielder scored both goals, including a stunning volley after just 14 seconds, in the FA Cup final last weekend and thrives on the biggest stages. He has scored six goals in his last  six appearances for City and, with Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne occupying most of the Inter defenders’ attention, he should get plenty of time on the ball.

Fans of card betting should pay attention to Denzel Dumfries, who is likely to be tasked with keeping Jack Grealish quiet. The Manchester City player has drawn a Champions League high 29 fouls this season, an average of 3.09 fouls suffered per 90 minutes, while Dumfries has committed eight fouls across his last five Champions League games. He can be backed to commit at least two fouls at 4/6 or, if you’re feeling more adventurous, at 12/5 to be booked for the fifth time this season.

Referee Szymon Marciniak’s record should also be taken into account. The Polish officiator was in charge for Manchester City’s home win over Real Madrid in the semi-finals and reached for his card five times that evening. He has handed out 37 bookings and two red cards in eight Champions League assignments this season, averaging 4.88 cards-per-game. With tempers likely to flare at some point, backing over 4.5 cards at 6/5 is advised.

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