Montpellier vs Lille Predictions

• Montpellier picked up 68% of their points haul at home.
• Montpellier kept a clean sheet in just four of their 12 home league games.
• Both teams scored in a joint league-high 74% of Lille’s games.
• Lille failed to win nine of their 12 away league games this season.

Two sides, one goal – a European finish

Ahead of this round, Montpellier sit just three points off the top-six pace while defending champions Lille are just two points behind them. Moreover, both sides rank in the top six for most total goals per Ligue 1 match on average with Montpellier games averaging 3.1 and Lille 2.9, suggesting this could be yet another exciting encounter.

The hosts have stumbled of late with three defeats from their last four league games, though a 3-2 win as outsiders in their last home game against Monaco provides confidence ahead of this. Enouragingly, only Brest won more than Montpellier’s five league games entered as pre-match outsiders this season (W5, D2, L8).

Any chance of defending their Ligue 1 crown is already dead in the water, though Lille must find some consistency in order to secure a European finish. They head into this clash on the back of consecutive defeats, conceding seven goals in the process, suggesting that they could be breached yet again.

Topsy-turvy odds

Considering that neither side has any apparent injury crisis at the time of writing, both sides are showing consistently inconsistent form and Montpellier sit above Lille in the table, it seems peculiar that they have been chalked up at such a generous price at home.

As such, I am willing to take a chance on a home win with both teams scoring to boost those odds even further. Lille failed to win five of their seven away games entered as favourites this season (W2, D2, L3) and it looks worthwhile to take that on yet again, for smaller stakes I will be sticking with a 2-1 Montpellier success.

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