Napoli vs Lazio predictions, betting tips & match preview

Napoli’s Champions League qualification hopes are hanging in the balance after they drew 1-1 with Besiktas in midweek. However, they need to refocus on the domestic league, as their aim of clinching a spot in next year’s Champions League isn’t looking all that bright either. After defeat last weekend, they fell to fifth behind Lazio.

They have the chance to move back above Lazio, as they face them this weekend. The side from the capital have made a strong start, which puts them in the frame for a top three finish this season. Having been knocked out of the Champions League at the qualifying stage last term, they’d love to return to Europe’s top competition. A win at Napoli would go a long way to securing that.

Napoli’s defeat last weekend wasn’t really a shock; they went down 2-1 away to champions Juventus. That result leaves them some way off top spot, but they were always going to struggle to fight for the title after selling Gonzalo Higuain to Juve in the summer. He came back to haunt them with a goal last week, but now Maurizio Sarri’s side must move on from that loss.

They should have a better time at home, as they’ve got a strong record at the San Paolo. They’ve managed to win 10 of their last 11 league games here, while they’ve lost just once at home in 24 Serie A matches. That run includes a 5-0 hammering of Lazio over a year ago. It’s hard to see the visitors putting in that poor of a performance again on Saturday.

Napoli do boast a strong scoring record at home, they’ve scored 2.4 goals per game in front of their own fans. They’ve found the net eight times in their last four, with seven different players scoring. The highest scorer of those seven isn’t Arkadiusz Milik, but Spaniard Jose Callejon. He’s hit seven goals in 11 matches so far, and the hosts will need him at his best here. He’s 7/4 with bet365 to add to that impressive tally by scoring against Lazio.

The visitors, meanwhile, are the highest scorers outside of the top two. They average 2 goals a game this term, scoring in 82% of their matches. However, they do have a problem at the back. They let in 1.6 goals per away match. They also concede from 11% of the shots they face on the road. That should be worrying, considering that Napoli create over 21 chances per game at home.

Of Napoli’s home matches and Lazio’s away trips, 60% of each have seen both teams find the back of the net. While there’s little value in backing BTTS, it’s worth doubling up with a home win. Last season’s Serie A runners up have been excellent at home in the league, and we’re backing them to have too much for their opponents. However, we are backing the visitors to score a goal. Napoli win and BTTS is our tip, which is 21/10 with bet365.