Newport County vs Crewe Predictions

It’s been a very pleasing start to the campaign for last season’s play-off finalists, who go into match-day five without defeat. They’ve only won one of their four, though the fact that they’ve continued to be hard to beat can act as a springboard for success. After drawing away from home in the week, Michael Flynn’s men will be hoping to treat their home fans to a win, though beating top-of-the-league Crewe certainly won’t be easy.

For some time, Newport County have been a tough nut to crack under Michael Flynn, and nothing has changed this season. The Ironsides go into match-day five having lost none of their four League Two matches, while they’ve conceded just two goals, both of which came on the opening day, which means that Saturday’s hosts have now gone over 270 minutes without conceding a goal. Impressive.

Scoring lots of goals has never really been Newport’s thing under Flynn, though a pragmatic approach got them to Wembley last term, so fans of the Welsh club probably won’t mind a lack of attacking substance. What they lack in flamboyancy and creativity, they more than make up for in hard-work and defensively solidity. Not only have Newport kept three clean sheets this term, but they’ve also done a good job of preventing teams from creating lots of chances, as an average of 1.07 expected goals against suggests. At the other end, they’re averaging 1.54. Flynn’s men have also conceded just seven shots on target in four matches.

Crewe have also been solid at the start of the new campaign, though unlike Newport, they’ve done more than grind out draws, as they’ve won each of their last three matches.

After a somewhat unjust defeat on match-day one, Crewe made light work of beating Oldham, as they showed just how good they can be going forward, posting 3.07 expected goals for and scoring twice. Creating chances is something that Crewe have done well this term, as they’re currently averaging a very solid 1.9 expected goals for. As they’ve surrendered an average of 0.95, they’re clearly also good at outperforming their opponents in terms of creating scoring opportunities.

From a betting point of view, this is a tricky game. Crewe are a team in hot form right now, though Rodney Parade is one of toughest places to go in League Two. That said, given that they’re a side that has been struggling to outscore their opponents this term, the hosts appear to represent little value at the current prices.

One bet that does make slight appeal is ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’. Newport, who were the lowest scorers in the top ten last term, are very, very tough to get the better of, but as touched on above, they lack quality in the final third. Add in the fact that both teams, who’ve each shipped an average  of just two shots on target in their last four combined, have performed well in terms of expected goals against and it’s easy to feel that the chances of goals at both ends are slightly less than the early prices would have us believe.