Oxford United vs Luton Town Predictions

Oxford are seemingly back on a downward trajectory having lost each of their last three in all competitions, though their performance at Kingsmeadow on Saturday wasn’t all that disappointing. In fact, on the balance of play, Karl Robinson’s men did enough to at least earn a draw, so they may fancy their chances when they host Luton at the Kassam Stadium on Tuesday evening.

On the face of it, Oxford are still struggling, and while they’re certainly not thriving, the U’s are doing better than they were during the first four or five weeks of the campaign. Their defeat against Walsall on home soil a fortnight ago was unmerited, as was their defeat against Wimbledon last time out. On neither of those occasions, did Oxford set the world alight, but they offered more of a threat than their opponents, while they weren’t as bad at the back as the result would suggest.

Offensively, Karl Robinson’s men have started to offer a more consistent threat, as their last three matches have shown. Their average of 1.5 expected goals for is certainly an improvement on what went before. If they can continue to improve in the final third, then results will soon turn. The trouble is, having missed some good opportunities against average teams, Oxford now face a massive test against a strong Luton side.

Luton have also improved of late, as they’ve really started to emerge as serious top-six contenders with a string of very good displays. The Hatters come into this match off the back of a decent showing against an in-form Charlton side, while they dominated Blackpool in their penultimate match and strolled to victory against Bristol Rovers prior to that.

From a forward point of view, Nathan Jones’ men have moved through the gears in recent weeks, as they’re now the second-best team in the division according to expected goals accumulated, and they’ve managed to do that whilst maintain lofty defensive standards. The Hatters also rank second in terms of expected goals against, which means that they sit second in the expected goal difference table too – a far cry from where Oxford are down in 16^th.

Oxford have improved in their last three matches, but they’ve still fallen short of the numbers produced by Luton. During that time, Oxford have accumulated 4.5 expected goals, while they’ve conceded 3.6. Such stats are not bad at all, but Luton have accumulated 5.9 and conceded just 1.9 in their last three fixtures.

If Oxford can continue to improve bit by bit, then their fortunes will alter before long, but it’s difficult to fancy them against a Luton side that looks considerably better at both ends of the pitch.